Idk exactly how their algorithm works, but you definitely need big efforts to push up the number. Similar to the intervals.icu eFtp calculation, but probably factoring in non maximal efforts too. So in other words, doing the same thing over and over again isn’t going to push up your ‘predicted’ ftp. However, it will increase your fitness. You need to give it some new data to spit you out a new predicted value. That’s just how (statistical) regressions work. Go do a max 3, 5, and 10 min effort and I guarantee it will update for you.
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Agreed. That’s the big outlier. My hr goes up quite a bit in the heat. My fittest was around jul-oct last year. Hopefully with a bit more of a build phase it’ll be stronger closer to that time this year.
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Just wanted to offer up some color commentary on an earlier point I made. For reference my “set ftp” is currently 275W (= 270-280W) although I’m seeing clear signs its higher but haven’t tested recently.
This endurance gain I trust:
I literally see that gain on my bike computer when doing weekly 120 minute low-aerobic z2/z3 TT efforts that I use for benchmarking purposes. Even now that temps are in low 80s. Slow and steady #gainz my coach has finessed after some Nov-Dec volume.
And I trust these curves up to my upper tempo HR, something like 148bpm for me, which is what I see if going out and doing a long 30-60+ minute interval around 88% (between 85-90%) ftp.
However I don’t trust using those curves for gains above that, at least based on the riding I do. Basically those curves, because of my intervals, with a “conservative ftp” of 275W are saying that a HR of 152bpm takes me out to 400W which I can hold for about 90 seconds and my HR ends up above 165bpm.
Just wanted to clarify my earlier point of using those curves. At least for my rides, based on my training, those curves don’t tell me anything at power outputs greater than upper tempo / z3-high / sweet spot / 88-90%-ish.
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Don’t use those curves for less than 1 year. They require a big sample for the law of large numbers to apply.
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On the high end of power the curves would be a lot more interesting if only fed data from the last 25% of intervals.
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I might be overvaluing this a bit, but I wonder if there might be some aspect of accumulated fatigue as well, especially if this was a big jump from your previous load? Most plans are designed with a race In mind, and after a few months of a build you’ll have a period of slightly reduced TSS through specialty, and In some cases a taper, before a properly maximal effort.
The 3:1 ratio is typical within a block, but recovery/adaptation works on larger scales as well, so I could see a bit of tiredness from the entire build itself, plus a lack of really “all out” data points (which might happen if you’re just using AI FTP generated from ‘productive’ workouts) not showing improvements that well, especially if you’re already fairly well trained and those increases are smaller to begin with.
Hard to say without a more complete overview of your year/season as well as some more subjective feedback, but IMO it’s worth assessing the simple stuff before you get too into the weeds 
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If anything I’ve reduced my TSS/hours from last year by about 10-15%. I just came off a recovery week which included 3 days off the bike (usually take 1). I have one full week of training before a two week vacation, so will try and stick to the three LV workouts while away which will reduce my load by about 60%. Interested to see how I feel when I get back.
Saw this on Twitter and considered posting on the “show me your outdoor z2 rides” thread but felt maybe better to post here…
Take 3 months off, then come back and thank me. Reforming your Z2ish rides to Z2 is the only way. You will be in my nightly thoughts and 
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Definitively don’t do that. You need the volume. I did drop from 12h/week to LV plan only, and FTP plus all other markers went down.
Agree with the “time for a proper test” shouts. Best would be some sort of long-form test. Start pedalling at FTP for as long as you can. (If you get bored after 40min or so, see if you can ramp it up slightly).
The other idea is, add some harder vo2max work. Some of TR’s “vo2max” workouts are too easy. You want to be breathing really hard, for about 15-20 minutes in total (all interval time added together).
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Training is working, carry on as is.
Are you training for a specific event or a series of races?
Can you post your PLs?
I know this has been mentioned several times already, but this is good news. You feeling stronger is super important (together with what you wrote about your heart rate not creeping up on long Z2 rides).
I think you are at a very interesting point in your career. As @mcneese.chad wrote, you could be improving aspects of your fitness that are not captured by FTP gains. Or you could be plateauing.
Unfortunately, whenever I dug into the topic of additional fitness metrics, the answer wasn’t as simple as I had hoped. There are plenty of fitness metrics that you can cook up, but you need to pick the right ones and you have to know whether this metric captures an aspect of performance that you want to improve. Heart rate-based metrics are great secondary metrics, but they all require context and are very personal. Ultimately, that’s why a lot of the discussion centers around absolute and relative FTP (W and W/kg).
You should also be sure that you are measuring and optimizing the right metric: an example would be a crit rider working on extending their TTE at FTP beyond 50 minutes: that is likely not be the aspect of their performance that helps them perform better in crit races. For a hill climb TTer it might be crucial for their success.
If I were you, I’d do the following: reap the benefits from your peak/plateau. Go out and ride. Rip it if you feel like it, relax at endurance pace if you prefer. Enjoy riding. Then take a break for several weeks.
Next, start a training plan that is quite different than the one you did before. E. g. if you did the crit plan this season, try a climbing road race or TT plan next. Add a polarized block before that. Point is, subject your body to a different stimulus. I’d stick to a LV plan that you pad accordingly just as you have done before. Take note how your body reacts to various stimuli.
Of course, if you have a specific goal, e. g. extending your TTE at FTP, you could also pick a plan that is suited to this goal (the 40k TT plan perhaps?).
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284 is a good FTP. Whats you’re W/kg? Have you been losing weight? Are your other life stressors holding you back? Maybe 284 IS your plateau at your current life load?
My current life load keeps me sat at around 3.4W/kg, perpetually. I do a bunch of stuff throughout the week, which I’d have to give up/change if I wanted to improve my FTP, its just not happening though so I have to be happy where I am 
M - 60min TR
T - strength
W - 60min TR, 60 min Trampolining
T - 60min gymnastics
F - 60min TR
S - Rest (Family stuff)
S - 3-4hr MTB, then Family stuff
Of course there is a full time M-F job and young family alongside all that, and seemingly I cant get much past where I am with the current load
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Not much to add except the same thing happened to me between 2021 and 2022, but this was basically intentional as I was training for London-Edinburgh-London - my power over anything short (say sub 1-2hr) went down, AI FTP was basically the same (1 watt down) but I my PR on an 8hr ride was 30 watts higher…
You can definitely have the same “FTP” but radically different feeling on the bike, especially at the end of long rides. This is normal - and something that is worthwhile training. I found this article about Will Barta’s training informative, especially the “tired 20” concept: The Making of a Pro Tour Rider | TrainingPeaks
There’s plenty of guys with what looks like world-beating 20 minute power/FTP, but what matters in a lot of real life situations (including going for long fun rides! Which sounds like what you’re doing) is being able to still have access to that power after several hours of riding.
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What part of you thinks I’m doing anything remotely close to “easy” vo2 workouts?
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3.86 w/kg. No stress, stable weight. Plenty of rest.
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I’d love to hit 3.8W/kg, but for me thats a good 35-40W increase which would need substantial changes to my current schedule! Maybe 3.8 is your 11-12 hour a week plateau? 
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I am seeing gains in a range of power levels, durations & reduced effort (HR & RPE); even with what appears to have been a reduction in training time & stress to previous timeframes… so is the moral of the story is that there’s more to cycling fitness than FTP? 
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This may be a silly question…but could someone explain why FTP would stagnate, while other metrics continue to improve? That doesnt make any sense to me. Why would one power zone refuse improvement, while others do not?
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I forgot to mention that my “fitness” does definitely seem to still be improving, even though the numbers arent. Recovery time, interval duration etc
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