Studies have shown that ramp tests give a pretty accurate estimate of power-at-VO2max (pVO2max).
But ramp tests were not originally designed to estimate FTP. It is a hack ‘discovered’ by Coach Ric Stern in the 1990s. Trying to use a fixed percentage like 75% is really just a ballpark guess at FTP. It is really that simple.
As a result, its one reason you see threads popping up and concluding with “the ramp test overestimated my FTP” because it became obvious that workouts were too hard.
GPLama covered the topic of ramp tests with Dr. Stephen Lane and his recommendation was to use the ramp test to obtain MAP (power at VO2max), and then use (82% of that) to pace a 20-minute test to get a better estimate of FTP. Coach Ric Stern said the same.
Going back to the science, in podcast 189 and in original How VO2 Max Work Makes You Fast — The Science Behind It All blog post (info below has been removed during 2020 rewrite), Coach Chad explains:
- the last minute of a ramp test is power-at-VO2max or “pVO2max”
- FTP is generally 78-85% pVO2max
- when its 78% do more sweet spot, and when its 85% do more vo2max intervals
So what does all this mean in practice?
- ramp test is pretty accurate at estimating power at VO2max
- your FTP is some fraction of pVO2max, and it changes over one or several training blocks
- developing a good feel for riding at FTP is both a skill and helpful with deciding if you have a good ftp estimate or not
Kinda messy, huh?
You can see why some just say “accept ramp results and move on” and others suggest doing a 20-min test or a threshold workout or a long ride at estimated FTP to help decide if ramp’s FTP estimate is reasonable or not.
Australia’s Dr. Stephen Lane recommends using ramp (with 2.5 minute steps) to estimate FTP and then use that to do a 20-minute test in this 2016 GPLama YouTube video that pre-dates TR’s use of the ramp test: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtKTdf9yhZE
In the past TR has recommended doing a threshold workout as a simple test to confirm your FTP. I think that is a good recommendation for anyone using the ramp test. My personal favorite is doing 20-min tests somewhat infrequently, and then doing something longer (40-70 minutes long) to confirms my new FTP and training zones. In addition such a long test gives great confidence in ability to ride hard with a faster group, or pace a long climb, or pace a breakaway / time trial.