Is there a bicycle price bubble?

Maybe the best way of looking at it, would be to look at the publicly traded bike manufacturers over time.
See how their sales, profits etc. has changed. I believe someone did that in the other thread on this topic to show a quite significant jump in profits for the year of 2020

That was Giant, I think. I donā€™t have access to any manufacturerā€™s internal accounting data but Iā€™d be willing to bet any spike in profits this year has been driven by an unexpected surge in volume of sales, rather than prices that were (presumably) determined before the pandemic and the ā€˜bike boomā€™.

What will be very interesting to see is if 2022 models follow the same upward trend. Iā€™m going to stick my neck out and say models introduced late 2021 wonā€™t show the same relative increase.

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so the auto market deals with this too, customers start to get expectations about what features that a car should have, so a car like the honda civic (which started off as a tiny, cheap and cheerful subcompact car) has gotten progressively bigger and more feature rich, with the price tag to match. Eventually this leaves a gap in the market that something like the Fit makes sense.

are we seeing the same thing happen in the bike market? all these models are expected to be lighter, more aero, more comfortable, etc, and accordingly the price goes up.

are we just looking at a gap?

You are talking about ā€œcreepā€ where a car gains size and/or features and steps from one segment to another.

That is relevant as I mentioned above, since the Trek Fuel EX 8 of 2008 may well not be the ā€œsame bikeā€ in the current 2020 incarnation. Your Civic example is a good one, and the Accord is another H that took a similar ā€œbigger/betterā€ trend from generation to generation. New models typical come back to fill in the open segments.

Not sure we see the same thing in general. A Stumpjumper from 2005 was considered a ā€œtrail bikeā€ and is still the same today. But the capability differences between the two bikes is super stark. That is just a change in design and tech that allows that. So comparing ā€œsameā€ bikes over time can work, but is more complex in many ways than we might assume (names only).

So, regardless of any name applied to a product, you should aim to compare basic intentions and the relative space in the market (comparing old LX stuff to Deore level of today? or similar examples) should be considered.

In the car example, comparing the modern Fit to an older Civic might well be the ā€œrightā€ comparison.

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And maybe a bit similar to what is happening on the MTB side with travel and bike geo. Every new model gets ~10mm more travel and 1 deg more slack until it leaves itā€™s original category and the company needs to introduce a whole new bike to fill in the gap left behind.

For example, with Trek. Fuel went from a 130/130 trail bike to 140/130 bigger trail, then the Top Fuel went from 100/100 XC race to 120/115 Downcountry/trail then they had to make the Supercaliber 100/60 to fill in that XC race demand.

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You beat me to it. The Civic is not aimed at the same market as it was; it may have the same name, but itā€™s essentially a different car aimed at different buyers. Iā€™m not sure thatā€™s whatā€™s happening in the bike market.

That said, I do think expectations are a little higher. The exception, oddly, is weight; now the mantra is ā€˜aero is everythingā€™ (with apologies to @Aeroiseverything ), 8kg is the new 7.5kg :rofl:

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We all bemoan the rising costs of bikes, but how many of us would ask a bike manufacturer to please cut out the tech and performance improvements of the last many years in favor of keeping cost the same? On the contrary, we complain when new models donā€™t have enough improvements or when big improvements donā€™t come quickly enough.

Iā€™m curious why this seems to be isolated to cycling enthusiasts. You donā€™t see incredulous car, watch, lawn mower, boat, furniture, etc, buyers wondering why their $30k wonā€™t buy something well outside the realm of possibility. Dare I say cycling enthusiasts might occasionally feel a bitā€¦entitled? :wink:

But who can blame us? Everyone wants to have their cake and eat it too :slight_smile:

One thing to maybe consider also is that comparing a 2010 Ultegra bike to a 2020 Ultegra bike is a pretty massive step in performance and as some people pointed out is also $3-500 more expensive now even factoring in inflation. But you can also step down to the 105 model and it will still be a huge step up from the old Ultegra.

I got back into riding 3 years ago on my Momā€™s old 2007 Specialized Allez Elite with Ultegra 6700 and when I crashed it I bought a 2019 Specialized Allez Sprint Disc with 105 7000. The old bike retailed for $2300 and the new bike retailed for $2100. Without question the 2019 Allez sprint with modern 105 is a better bike than the older Allez with Ultegra.

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I know more than 1 camera enthusiast who raves about how much better value new cameras areā€¦

Iā€™d be genuinely interested to know how many ā€˜hobby goodsā€™ (excuse the poor phrasing, but you know what I mean) are, in real terms, more expensive than their predecessors. Genuine q.

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I think part of it is that the first thing that people use to compare bike models (groupsets) have names and not objective measurements to discern them. So people can look at two bikes and say ā€œahh this new bike has 105 so it just doesnā€™t feel as good as that older bike with Ultegraā€. Even though that new 105 is way better than old Ultegra.
But with things like cameras, cars, or computers you get stats like sensor dimensions, horsepower, MPG, Megapixels, GHz, etc to compare, which are always improving and are well marketed.

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Stats that are always improving and well-marketed like aerodynamic power savings, weight, stiffness, cable routing, vibration damping, rolling resistanceā€¦? :slight_smile:

I disagree profoundly with this statement. Cycling in Europe has traditionally been for decades a working class thing, it was too hard and inconvenient. Just recently it got popular among middle and high class executives

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A few random thoughts and not withstanding that there is a segment of the cycling demographic, of which many here are, who does make use of all of the things made available but realistically the majority of cyclists are ā€œenthusiastsā€ of varying degrees, donā€™t need or make use of much of what the cycling industry is pedaling (pun intended).

I have and had a number of expensive hobbies (guitars, guns, ski racing, golf for example) and letā€™s be honest, cycling has to be one of the most brand hyper-conscious, snobbish sports I have ever seen. Weekend warriors come out and by the end of one season feel out of place wanting Di2, S-Phyre shoes and $300 Rapha Gilets to fit in on group rides. They donā€™t call Cervelos dentistā€™s bike for nothing. $120 chain lube, por favor. Marginal gains for the average Joe, lol

The whole N+1 thing. The culture and industry is encouraging over-consumerism. One wouldnā€™t take a CX bike on a track that needs a ā€œGravelā€ bike or you simply donā€™t ride a CX or Gravel on the road. You need specific bikes for each thing, and Aero bike, a climbing bike, a Fondo bike. Oh and make sure each one has a power meter.

MAP, distributorship and location based pricing is bullshit and lack of competition drives up the cost. I am often told to buy retail from CRC/Wiggle because the shop I deal pays more wholesale or restrictive shipping because the distributor in Country Y complains that he is being undercut by someone in Country Z. Direct to consumer, compared the prices of a Canyon or Factor to a Trek or Specialized lately, havenā€™t cut out much overhead there have they?

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Yes, but do people care about that as much as having ā€œUltegraā€ written on the side of their crankarms? haha

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Ah - but hereā€™s the thing: those qualities are improving rapidly, while prices are trending down; In the bike industry, weā€™re seeing incremental improvements (and actually often the reverse in terms of weight, the most obvious metric) and price rises.

I get that improvements in shift function etc are less tangible, but Iā€™m not getting the sense that my current bike is exponentially better than what I had 4-5 years ago; a lot of the consumer tech I can buy very definitely (and measurably) is.

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Since when are cars getting cheaper year over year? Also improvements for things like camera sensors are also very incremental, not just on phones but for pro stuff, and the prices for some Lenses and bodies would make DA seem like a bargain

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Iā€™m showing my age here, but it was a working/lower-middle class thing when I started as a teenager. You saw the Colnagos hanging up in the shop but you almost never saw anyone actually riding one. Many - not all, by any means, but plenty of - guys had bikes 10+ years old, or obviously cobbled together from the parts bin (do they still exist?) Now, I havenā€™t seen a pre 2015 bike on a group ride in the last 2 years, and I havenā€™r ridden with a builder in a decade. Admittedly, I live in a fairly pricey area of the London commuter belt, so thereā€™s an element of self-selection here, but the ā€˜dentistā€™ trend is very real. Incidentally, both the dentists Iā€™ve ridden with are nice guys :rofl:

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:sweat_smile:

The potential in increasing speed through fairings, deeper wheels and changes in geometry is just so much greater than the potential in saving 500g.
We all love the feel of a light bike, but the feeling of improving in average speed is pretty good to. It just doesnā€™t offer instant gratification (you usually find out by checking strava after your ride).

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I didnā€™t say they were. I was responding to a specific point about megapixels and how certain technological improvements could be very tangibly measured.

Right but that post didnā€™t focus on just cameras and megapixels, so Iā€™m glad we agree that in the car industry youā€™re not getting more car for no more cost