Using your formulat for Roglic, I come up with 171.
45 points for 2019 Vuelta
60 points for 2020 Vuelta
18 points for 2019 TDF
48 points for 2020 TDF
So the ranking attempts to count podiums in Grand Tours over the last 5 years adding 3 weighting schemes, based on sound generally accepted assumptions that we can all agree.
- Recent results are more valuable than older results. The arbitrary decay factor I used was (1,0.8,0.6,0.4,0.2).
- Winning is non linearly better than 2nd or 3rd. I incorporated this as 100, 60, 30 points.
- Tdf is harder given the level of competition than Giro and La Vuelta. Some people argue Giro is harder than La Vuelta, but I decided to give equal value. (1, 0.75, 0.75). The proper way to do this is quantify the level of competition of each tour on it’s own, maybe I do that later.
I made a mistake in the previous script, but now is corrected and the conclusion doesn’t change at all, these 4 guys are in a league of their own.
EDIT: Updated methodology in post below.
Notes:
> Roglic, Carapaz are older and have participated in more GTours than the other 2. Which could add a weighting factor based on age, I decided to omit that for the moment
Cheers
I guess we can revisit this post Vuelta - I think either way my argument will be supported.
If Bernal rebounds and performs well I will happily include him in the top tier, and your formula will support this.
If Bernal doesn’t rebound and perform well it will put Roglic and Pogacar a significant step above Bernal and Carapaz, and your numbers will support that it is the two Slovenians and then everyone else 
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Ok, I found a more objective way to weight this in the formula…based on the podium payouts. Its very consistent across the board. I believe the new apt weights are:
1st 100
2nd 40
3rd 20
Along the same lines, prize money relative differences across different Grand Tours give us a way to be more objective in the weighting. According just to money the weights should be
TdF = 1
Giro = 0.25
Vuelta = 0.3
However, this is incomplete. You must also factor level of competition. That analysis will take me longer, but given just the mere fact that the strongest rider is never in LaVuelta or Giro, I need to adjust the weights a bit, not to the level of money, but something more realistic like:
TdF = 1
Giro = 0.5
Vuelta = 0.5
If you read DT interviews you’ll notice how much more value they put on TDF.
With the new weights here’s the updated ranking which I believe is more objective:
Next is to adjust for number of age and the randomness of different life schedules. Cheers
With the Bernal you have a mistake - you have awarded him with 2021 TdF and 2019 Giro.
Pogacar was third in vuelta not in Giro.
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Thank you. I updated the chart. Also I had included the 2021 Vuelta with a hypothetical. Now Removed. Cheers.
I agree the way Rogilic bridged that gap negated all of Ineos tactics but I think their major flaw is the multiple leader strategy. It has not served them well here or at the tour and was Yates working to soften JV or was he working for himself? Before that stage, were Carapaz and Yates willing to turn themselves inside out for Bernal? Kuss covering Yates moves and Steve K. launching Rogilic to bridge to the front and not allowing anyone to go with him sure seemed like that a clear hierarchy has its place still.
The one additional thing you should factor in is the number of grand tour starts by dividing the points total by that. Not grand tour finishes, but starts even if crashed out. That would give you a ranking that more closely aligns to performance per grand tour start or grand tour consistency versus a stat that awards number of grand tours.
Of course JV has a hierachy with Roglic on top because he’s the absolute strongest on the team. Ineos has three 2nd tier GC riders who are more or less on the same level so of course they have to let the road decide who is the strongest on the day. Bernal is not durable enough anymore with his back issues so they never know which rider will show up and they can’t just blindly back him as the leader.
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Roglic throwing down a huge marker right now…interesting move this far out from the finish.
Also throwing himself on the floor!!
JEEBUS…what the hell? I know he was trying to get time, but he just potentially threw everything out the window.
These wild card teams definitely making a mark!
Bernal (and Yates) lose another big chunk of time…on a stage that they should not have.
Hopefully Rog is not hurt too badly…certainly did not seem to be as serious as his crash from le Tour, but…
i was half watching during work calls. WTH was today’s stage all about
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There’s a video on Velon’s Insta page, where Kuss and Roglic were talking right after the stage, Roglic said that the crash was nothing. So hopefully that mean’s he’s fine.
I don’t think we will know how today’s crash affected Roglic till 3 or 4 days from now. He could be feeling fine today because adrenaline is masking the affect of the crash, and the full impact will only hit him once he’s asleep / trying to sleep.
If I was Movistar, I would try and make tomorrow & Thursday really hard to not let Roglic recover going into this weekend’s stages. Maybe not a very sporting strategy, but if Movistar wants to win, I think it is what they need to do.
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Maybe, but this is certainly not his first rodeo (nor crash), so I would assume he can feel the difference between a light one and a big one. Compare to Valverdes a couple of days back, where it was evident right after the crash, adrenaline and all, that is was major.
Philipson out of the race with a fever. More chances for some of the other sprinters if they can get their trains organized.
Yeah, agree that the crash did not seem too serious and Rog seemed in good mood after the finish.
Whether it affects him long-term (recovery, mentality, confidence descending) will remain to be seen…but for now it seems like some road rash and that is it. His crash in July was much worse because he bounced down hard first, while yesterday he mostly just slid.