At 3.8w/kg - I think you may need to recalibrate slightly higher for time expectations (although, you’ve got time to bring that up by race day). It’s generally regarded that 4.0w/kg on a real good day is about 9. I was right at 4 last year, had a great day with ideal weather and went 9:02 starting from Purple. I was also out there for 2 weeks before the race, did the camp, so had ridden the course multiple times. Best I could tell I was 18-19% haircut on my sea level FTP.
I ran a 32/52 and would do so again at 4 w/kg or lower. I will be back for the race again this year, I may go to 34 this year, still TBD, but I’m already up 10-15w and at my last year’s race weight and it’s only January.
Check out the 2024 Thread for a little more discussion.