If Ewan is in the 2nd group at the bottom, no one will chase down a rider out front. That’s what happened last year I believe…
Pretty much…Stuyven attacked, no one really reacted but he started fading and then Soren Kragh Anderson bridged and gave him the brief rest he needed to go again and win it.
Yeah, that is why it’s extremely important for Ewan that he has a teammate in the front group…if he’s there that is. It seems like a somewhat realistic situation where UAE goes all in on the Cipressa to try and blow it up for Pog, and it will be a real challenge for Ewan and Jakobsen to stay in.
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Belgian media reports that MVP may be on the start line for MSR…likely not a factor and seeking mileage / fitness, but good to see.
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Apparently Stuyven is sick so they’re bringing Pedersen instead. I can definitely see him taking the win.
I got 25-1 on Pogacar after he won Strade Bianchi before his odds came into 5-1 so I’m hoping he does something special but I agree it looks hard for him to drop Wout
Ooooh…I think this is a smart move. Pedersen is riding really well, as his stage win in P-N showed. I think he has a really good chance to pull off the win.
I know that he had said he was 100% OK with not going, but that seemed like a bad decision by Trek.
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Came here to post the same.
From CyclingTips he plans to start MSR. Agree he won’t be a factor at the finish
More posts today suggesting Ganna as the victor for MSR.
Surely if Pidcock has any form then Ganna will be controlling the front of the field for the long run along the coast into the final climb.
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Average speed up the Poggio is basically 40kph (25mph). Massive draft. Average gradient is only 3.7%.
There’s a very short section near the top that hits 8%, it’s there that an explosive rider can attack and get separation. Ganna isn’t that sort of rider. Yes, he could go long at the bottom, but he’s likely dropped by a late attack on the Poggio.
It’s been replicated fairly often. It really suits a rider like Alaphilippe, MVDP, etc.
What makes this finish so interesting, is that it’s a tiny separation. Then there’s the chance the dropped riders catch on the descent and 3km flat to the finish.
Pederson changes things a bit. He’d possibly beat Wout on current sprint form. However, if Pederson makes the finish, the whole 2nd group is there and likely Ewan. Ewan still wins.
It’s a micro group, Wout, Pog, maybe a couple of others. Hell, MVDP is possibly starting now. I’m not expecting him to be on top form, but who knows. He’s an unstoppable force.
I’m still thinking Wout wins out of a group of 3, maybe 4. Who the other riders are, well that’s the fun part.
If MVDP starts and wins, look out world, he might take up other sports and become a 300 discipline champion 
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Caleb could make the front split, but thatd likely make his chances of coordination worse. Having Pedersen present on strong sprinting form would mean any trek rider’s would help chase, and same with Jumbo rider’s for WVA. I think calebs problem last year was not just him but anyone with a decent sprint was absent of team mates in the finale.
Ewan out due to illness too now apparently
Nooooooooo - I’ve already put my money on him!
My bookmaker lets me pull back…NOT! 
More significantly, this is really gonna hurt Lotto-Soudal in the battle to remain in the World Tour. They are gambling on wins, not just a bunch of placings to get them points. By losing Ewan for MSR, that is gonna hurt them quite a bit and they desperately need points (currently ranked 20th).
On the bright side, it gives Gilbert free reign to grab the last monument he doesn’t have…
Are there actually going to be enough healthy riders that they can have the race lol
What was it…something like 53 riders finished Paris-Nice?
Stop the presses!! Alpecin-Fenix just annouced MvDP is starting on Saturday!!! 
(yeah yeah, I know he probably isn’t “fit” yet… but I am still loving it!)
I’m surprised so many think Gilbert can take the win. Do you seriously think so or is this just wishful thinking? I would put his odds as very low IMO
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Oh, I don’t think it is likely at all…I would just like to see him bag all the monuments.
It would have to be one entirely based on circumstances right now, not him…the right move at the right time on the Poggio…everyone looks around, waiting for someone else to chase and he manages to get just enough of a gap to pull it off.
I’d rate his chances at ~10% or less.
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59, but the number is really irrelevant, illness is ravaging the peloton.
Alpecin is still likely all in for Phillpsen, but he would need amazing climbing legs to make it over, but he’s been going really well.