And yet they could easily be closer to profitability than Zwift.
Well, the software is free, so I kinda doubt it. Pretty hard to be profitable with no revenue. 
Nah, the point is the loss could be smaller than Zwifts, even with no revenue.
Last week pretty good when I wanted to swap/exchange for replacement Zwift Hub (janky QR adapter).
Fast forward a few days with the same issue on the second unit, and trying to get my refund has not been quick. Still in progress as I donât have a return shipping label yet. Hopefully the Wahoo version of this single cog thing will be put together better.
Iâll likely not find out for a while as Iâve grown impatient and slapped an 11-speed cassette on a 2018 Kickr Core and moved on.
Considering the cost of tooling to mold both halves of the Cog, and the fact that the center cog is likely a stock item, I have no expectation that the âWahoo Cogâ will be anything new or different from that sourced by Zwift.
At most, Ray mentions they will eventually sell a Cog installed on a Wahoo trainer version freehub for the same swap process as they offered for Zwift Hub Classic owners. Main point being that unless your quality issue was with the Hub freehub body and pawls in particular, the Cog experience will be the same even when it comes in a Wahoo box.
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Yep, I agree with all that.
For anyone interested, I could not get the preinstalled QR adapter off of the unit (both times), and neither could the two bike shops I visited. We basically rounded out the bolt in the process. My impression is that it was just over tightened at the factory. It should have been hand tightened, at best.
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The problem I see here is for consumers. The big players have kept trainer prices high and the pandemic demand even encouraged them to push prices higher and higher.
There should be a basic $299 direct drive trainer on the market. I thought we might get there with Zwift putting Wahooâs feet to the fire. With this deal, $500-600 will remain to be the price floor for some time to come.
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Well, there is at least one new/pending option in that price range (at least UK option for now)
Considering that this D100 looks like a smart controlled version of the Magene T100 (which was a magnetic dumb trainer that reported estimated power), we may see other versions of this trainer labeled like Magene or Kinetic (since Magene owns them now) or other makers like Elite continue to push on the entry level price point.
But per the D100, you can expect derated specs at those price points. Right or wrong, there are steps in quality & performance along with these products. Itâs not always A+B=C for costing here either. Marketing and support being two big ones that go well beyond the pure manufacturing costs all play into this, along with good old capitalism.
Itâs definitely true Zwift kicked off the reduction that hit the Core and others. And this new partnership may well impede that direction to some degree. But no different than Zwift putting it to Wahoo, there is nothing stopping other makers from pushing the envelope if itâs possible to do so and remain profitible.
Free to end users. So far. I have not looked at them at all but they could have other revenue sources from partnerships or licensing.
Based on what?
Noting again that a productâs value does not derive simply from its COGS, I canât see any massive market demand for a DD trainer at that price point.
The basic rules of Supply & Demand still largely hold trueâŚif anything, I would argue that prices have remained relatively stable because demand has dropped considerably and lowering prices is not enough of an incentive to spur incremental purchases.
You are dealing with a consumer durable that has a long life spanâŚand the market ended up being largely fulfilled during COVID. It seems most people are not looking to replace those trainers yet, so demand is soft and is being met by the current price structure. Why sacrifice your margin for little to no increase in volume when most of these companies are struggling already?
The perfect example of this was when Saris was blowing out the H3 ~18 months ago. You could get them for ~$400 and they still couldnât move all their inventory.
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In @dcrainmaker interview with Wahoo CEO late last year, wasnât there a bit of âwinkâ toward Zwift and Wahoo working even closer together in the future? Maybe these two are getting married?
At the very least, theyâve gone on a few dates
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Like how is it even possible that Zwift has hundreds of thousands of people paying 15 per month and they canât make a go of it? Once itâs built ( ie now) it damn near runs itself. I just donât understand who is making off with all of the money.
Joe
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As a software engineer I can assure you that is not remotely true.
Maintaining software with actual users on it costs money (engineers, product managers, QA, customer service, servers, third party applications, etc) and thatâs before you even consider new features and bug squashing.
SaaS is an expensive service for a reason. You need a lot of skilled people to make it run and the infrastructure to keep the lights on is not cheap.
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These companies get outside money and try to be more than they are. They see Peloton get an IPO and a multi-billion valuation and they want some of that too. They hire marketing teams, they advertise, they hire more finance people, more software engineers, etc. Maybe they take on debt. Now they are losing money in the hope to get the big payout some day.
The covid boom dies, demand deflates and their revenue is down 20%. Now they are hurting. For some reason, short term thinking corporate types donât seem to be able to plan several years ahead nor plan around a temporary stay-at-home covid bike boom.
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Is weird- 1yr ago when the Zwift Wahoo lawsuit was in full swing, looked like Wahoo were doomed and couldnât compete with Zwift hardware pricing etc
Now, lawsuit settled, Wahoo are re-capitalised and its Zwift who look in real trouble
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It could also be a correction from an overexpansion during the pandemic. Also PE money has tightened thanks to the interest rate hikes and investors want to see profits and not only growthâŚ
With their position in the market they should be able to be profitable, but they invested a lot in beets that didnât pan out and all their new hardware seems rather nicheâŚ
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As far as I can tell itâs because they put an emphasis on pure growth rather than sustainable growth.
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I bet Zwift board meetings arent fun right now
Guys like KKR dont mess around when it looks like their investment is going down the pan
I appreciate the comment! NowâŚhow much are we talking to manage something like Zwift? They could easily have 1 1/2 million $ coming in per month (with 100,000 subscribers), maybe multiple times that much. Like a team of 20 or a team of 200 or maybe 2,000? Whatâs your best guess?
Joe