Its a big misconception that because your calculated (or modeled) FTP is a certain number that you should be able to just jump on a bike a hit that number for an hour. It takes specific workouts to have any idea what a true hour effort really is
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Good point about the cadence chart and coasting - I checked the last tri and there were just 2 spots were cadence dropped to zero.
Most of my rides are indoors or at an outdoor velodrome nearby. Only the easy/longer/endurance Sunday rides are on normal roads. I think you’re right there is something about having to think about all the other riders, not drafting, holes in the road, etc and it can be a distraction.
I’m struggling with this idea of going “all out”.
If I go off at 120% FTP or more, which I think I’ve only been doing for 3-min intervals in training, I’m pretty sure I’ll be done after 5 mins and be limping around the rest of the course?
Or does all out mean the max you can hold for those 20k?
Good point! I’ve updated the OP with some data. NP wasn’t that different to avg power which was interesting.
The speciality tri plan is mostly threshold and VO2 sessions. Personally I find the VO2 way easier than threshold.
Here is seems to be the best runners + guys with expensive bikes who go well. The swim is a smaller proportion of the overall race.
The swim is my best leg! I might gain a minute or two on my peers in the swim but then I generally lose it on the bike/run.
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Yes agreed. But for a while a core of my training (pre TR) was 2x20 mins sweet spot. I reckon I could easily have held it for 20k in a race. But in the tri’s I’m barely getting to that level.
From the comments so far, it’s looks like a question of doing more threshold sessions…
IME most people do. Threshold is very very difficult. Most people if they have played some sort of sport growing up have an idea of what a 2-5 min effort is. More than 20 mins at threshold is a skill that has to be developed
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If I throw out the data when you were sick and give you an arbitrary 10% discount in the heat… you have races that seem fine, if not perfect. A 10% discount in the heat may not be warranted, but you were the one who mentioned the heat as a notable factor.
I’d be inclined to say some practice racing, paying attention to hydration on hot days, and maybe some threshold work would close a fairly small gap between training and racing. You don’t say how you ran after those bike legs, and that’s pretty important: giving up 10W and a minute on the bike for 90 seconds on the run is worth it all day long.
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How about you go and test in a controlled environment what you can do.
Test 35 min power after a swim workout
To answer your question though. It’s the swim. We underestimate just how tiring a swim can be. I’ve not once held predicted race power from Olympic to Ironman and it is because I never test my actual capabilities after a swim
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Indeed, you can buy a certain amount of free speed with a quality TT bike - you will be quicker on a bike fitted Speed Concept or P5 compared with a road bike but I suppose you can only ride what is available/you can afford. I always ran through the field on the run, the last tri I did about 6 years ago I got out of the water 83rd, was 26th after the bike and 10th after the run. 
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Like others have said, don’t worry about looking at your power in a Sprint race…it is an all-out effort. Peg the needle and just go……look at your data after the race for analysis, but no reason to look at it during the race.
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Interesting tangent here.
How many seasons racing, what are your relative strengths in the disciplines, what kind of bike courses are they?
I’m a 1h06 - 1h11 3800m IM swimmer and although I had the same suspicions as you, I don’t think the data supports my pace swim affecting the bike.
My last sprint I arrived late after everyone had completed the swim, so literally went as hard as I could from start to finish to catch up. Got the same time/placing as the previous year on the same course.
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On paper your first was best, so beware overthinking a sprint tri. Course makes a huge difference, so beware direct power comparisons.
“All out” for a sprint tri is a feeling, not a power number. I am the least “listen to your body” triathlete there is, I’m all over numbers and don’t trust my feelings, but with sprint tri it has to be feeling - it’s too short to be pacing hills and farting about worrying about gradients, humidity and wind speed:
Tuck in and go hard. Now, are you still going hard? No? Go hard. Are you going too hard and need to free wheel? Fine. … Now go hard, pass that athlete up ahead. Etc.
Think about a 20min ftp test. Think about your 5km running PB. There’s no point at which you think “I’ll take it easy here” is there? But you are aware of your limits.
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6 years and a couple pro qualification placings
Why do you think your data doesn’t support the idea?
Have you done any A /B testing? You should really try it. Go for your morning swim workout, then come home and hop on the trainer and do one of the steady state triathlon power workouts. Compare that to the same workout but having it be the first one of the day.
As an aside I wouldn’t consider a year of training and still wind up with the same time as last year as “no performance loss.” So many confounding factors that affect an overall triathlon time. Hammering a swim because you were late is one of them.
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This is what i was thinking. Numbers are helpful but experience will lead you to go by feel
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I just skimmed the replies and didn’t se this mentioned… but isn’t the answer you are tired from the swim? It’s not surprising you aren’t at max power in the bike, just as you shouldn’t expect a 10k PR in the run.
A friend race Olympic triathlons at the world level. He always said you had to be in the first group out of the water to get in the draft. You get in the draft and “recover” (while still going incredibly fast and taking your turn pulling) and then it was all about the run. Another level to this is… do you want to be pushing the bike so hard? (I am not a triathlete so genuinely asking).
Lastly just want to give you all props. Being good at one discipline is hard enough, but to do all three is incredible!
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THIS!!!
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10 years BOP to MOP.
Yes, I’ve done all sorts of combinations in training and racing easy, moderate and hard swim to bike.
Relatively speaking I’m a strong swimmer, avg to strong bike, but very poor runner. No swim pacing or distance has affected my bike/run noticeably. My best swim performance sometimes precedes my best bike.
I suspect poorer swimmers would be more affected but I always come out of the swim feeling good.
At pro level I suspect more likely to be over the red line too, if you’re overextending to keep pace with a group?
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I think I’m going to change to a less aggressive approach on the swim and try to find good feet to sit on rather than trying to power through the field. I used to listen to Tower 26 all the time and they were always talking about how to do the swim well but still get to your bike fresh.