Peloton's blockbuster IPO (NASDAQ: PTON): What impact, if any, do you see it having on TrainerRoad?

Again, I’m not sure I agree with this. You seem to have adopted a narrow definition of “cyclist” just so you can make your statement. What is a “cyclist?” If it’s someone who spends time pedaling a bike, Peleton users (and me) are “cyclists.” If it’s someone who races competitively for net-positive money, I’m not sure how many people on TR or Peleton are “cyclists.” By getting farther from the former and closer to the latter, we’re making the “club” more exclusive for the sake of making it more exclusive. My point was simply, the narrower the definition we adopt and then only cater to that narrow definition, the less money TR makes. Why wouldn’t we define “cyclist” more broadly, including more people, and making TR more profitable and more able to develop new features? The word certainly lends itself to a broad definition. And not to disagree for the sake of it, but narrowly defining the word beyond what is required is the very definition of attempting “exclusivity” (I’m trying to avoid the use of the word “snob”).

As to the people that think Zwift would be a better alternative, I (and a professional fitness trainer, a doctor, and an exercise scientist) disagree. TR’s use of structured training, with specific goals at specific thresholds, spaced out a specific amount between workouts, is more “physically helpful” for getting fit than just hopping on Zwift for group rides. Simple analogy would be for gym-goers. Going to the gym with a structured plan from a professional will yield better results than going to the gym and just lifting things you see that seem fun to lift.

As to the people that think TR and a trainer is somehow more “complicated” or a better fit for the “get fit” crowd than Peleton, I also disagree. Buying a road bike and trainer from a bike shop is not complicated. Downloading the TR app is not complicated. By doing those two things, you’re as ready to go as you are with Peleton. I’ll give you this, Peleton is one less step. As to complexity of technology, I just don’t think pairing a trainer to an app is too complicated for someone. I just think this argument is flawed when you’re talking about people interested enough in fitness to spend $2500 on a Peleton bike. This doesn’t even get to the extra benefits of TR vs Peleton that people may or may not choose to take advantage of. This is less of a question of complexity and more of a question of marketing.

Finally, I think the tone of some of the replies to my post sort of proves my point. Some of the TR crowd just want it to be different because their goals are different, they are only focused on their reasons for using TR, their mind needs it to be to justify it, etc. I think people need to take a step back and take a macro view of the situation. Stop looking at TR from your own perspective and look at it from the owners’ perspectives or even from a neutral third-party perspective.

Peleton has shown an immense interest and profit potential in cycling at home to get fit. TR is, at base, a cycling at home app. Should Peleton’s exploding subscription numbers and IPO inform how TR goes forward? Of course they should! TR already does much of what Peleton does but better. The question is can / does TR want to acquire some of that demographic and what would that take. From a business standpoint, I can’t see a good reason to say no. It should explore some of it.

And by the way, as referenced above, I took my decision-making process to three professionals before settling on TR above Peleton and Zwift (I excluded several other apps on my own). All three agreed, among those three, TR was the best choice for getting fit and getting feedback on getting fit (each independently). TR can be used to improve form. TR can be used to prepare for a road race. TR can be used to get faster. TR can also be used to get fit. They aren’t mutually exclusive.

That said, if TR thinks I made the wrong decision, it may be right. Maybe I am better served on Peleton or Zwift.

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This is why my sister-in-law bought a Peloton treadmill:

Because it replaces the gym! She has no intention of running, but bought the Peloton treadmill. My brother-in-law already has a treadmill, elliptical, and bench with dumbbells up to 90lbs. He is interested in the Peloton bike for “the best cardio on the planet.”

My intuition is that Peloton growth numbers are a result of the app (non-cycling classes) and treadmill. If anyone has dug into their public data and knows, would be interested to know what is driving growth (cycling vs treadmill walking/running vs bootcamp/yoga/strength).

But there is a difference between your average Peloton user and a cyclist, just like there is a difference between someone who considers themselves a weight lifter compared to someone who just goes to the gym occasionally to lift weights. It’s not about trying to exclude anyone but about drawing obvious lines in the sand. I would argue most Peloton users don’t ride outside, or care about “getting faster”, similar to how people who occasionally go to the gym to lift weights, they’re more concerned with general fitness.

I’m all about being inclusive and don’t look down on someone who has a Peloton and doesn’t ever ride outside, but I’m also not going to pretend they’re the same as cyclists to have some sense of “lets make everyone equals”. That said, for the layman, Peloton is more appealing and I can see why.

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You’re moving the ball in your argument to make it work. You’re saying to earn the label “weight lifter,” frequency is the primary variable. But instead of using frequency to earn the label “cyclist,” you use two random variables - riding outside and getting faster. I may be able to agree with frequency as a variable. If you hop on your bike every once in a while (whether on TR, Zwift, or outside), maybe you haven’t earned the label “cyclist.” But what if you get on TR four days a week in a medium volume plan, have an FTP of 350 watts, and have a watts per kilogram around 4, but you never go outside or try to get faster (happy where you are). Are you a cyclist? I think so. What about 3 days a week, 250 watts, and 3 watts/kg? 2 days a week, 150 watts, and 2 watts/kg? Can someone who lives in year-round temperate climate and bikes outside seven days a week assert that someone who lives in cold weather and gets on the trainer 7 days a week isn’t a cyclist because they don’t get outside? It’s all random beyond getting on a bike and pedaling. Does it need a definition beyond that?

More importantly, is there some rule that says TR is only for “cyclists” that fit some random definition? Is that was people with equity in TR want? I would think TR (both for profit motive and self interest) would like to appeal to as a broad a demographic as possible without sacrificing their mission. And as I stated in my prior post, the mission of “making people faster” seems compatible with Peleton’s appeal / mission - “get fit.”

This back and forth is common at successful startups (and established companies) in high-growth industries. There is almost always friction between the “diehards / original users” and the more casual “bandwagon / new people.” If I had equity in TR, I would be doing my best to toe that line and trying to appeal to both. I would not be adopting language or company-wide policies to exclude the second. It’s very similar to when an indie band hits it big and gains mass appeal. There is the “I liked them before they were famous and sold out” crowd that just doesn’t want to accept the new reality. In that situation, the band should not reject their new-found fans. It should do it’s best to stay true to its music and embrace both.

My point is TR can stay true to its mission and take cues and customers from lessons from Peleton. The IPO provides a roadmap of sorts with all the information Peleton had to make public.

As @bbarrera comments, I take your point. That said, Peleton’s early-years numbers were primarily cycle-based. Those numbers alone are fairly impressive. Just grabbing those people would be huge for TR, right?

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You mean… people are suckers for eye candy and projections of lofty goals & body types???

I never would have guessed :stuck_out_tongue:

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I’m not sure where you’re going with this, but again, TR and Peloton are two different programs aimed at different audiences, and I maintain that TR is aimed more at cyclists, and Peloton more at the casual person who wants to turn pedals, and there’s nothing wrong with either. You will have a hard time convincing a dedicated TR user to abandon it for Peloton and vise versa. Personally I like that TR stays to their mission of making people faster cyclists, and doesn’t just try to appeal to the masses, because if they focus on what they do, they are exceptional at it. I’d rather have them be the master of one trade than a jack of all

tenor

Sorry, I only read the first 3 words of the thread title.

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The limits on TR’s market is not so much the technology but the fact that to make effective use of it you need to have some understanding of FTP and FTP based power training. Not that hard to get but, there is a very limited market for people who want to use FTP based power training to improve their cycling performance and it is a market with many competitors.

Early on at the start, TR had a great technological advantage with its virtual power tech. That truly did bring power based training to the masses and was something new and significant. But that evaporated with cheap power meters and then indoor smart trainers. TR is still great but it has competitors that are equally great and in some ways more versatile (e.g Zwift which can do everything TR does plus way more). And addition to the big app competitors, pretty much every cyclist has a bike computer that will run you through a workout and literally hundreds of coaches selling plans through TrainingPeaks that are downloadable to such devices. The key big competitors TR now has are better capitalized too so any growth there is in this market will be fought over. (eg. Zwift and Wahoo/Sufferfest)

This niche market is certainly big enough to make Nate a wealthy man (on paper at least - he seems to have no desire to cash out). And that market is big enough to keep TR in business but it is not where the explosive growth is in the broader fitness market and within its narrow market, things are quite competitive for TR and will only become more so.

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Zwift is great but their training plans make little sense, offer little flexibility, and arent as comprehensive as TR. For a random workout, Zwift is fine. For following a plan for fitness, TR wins hands down

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just some random thoughts on some things I’ve seen above, not replying to anyone in particular:

there’s some discussion of peloton = fitter vs TR=performance. I’d argue that training for performance makes one fitter than anyone on peloton, I think showing spin folks that they can be even fitter doing structured training

I personally don’t view peloton users as cyclists, per se, rather I view users as fitness enthusiasts. Cyclists, I think, are folks who either love to ride outdoors recreationally, love talking about gear, or really are super competitive and/or train for the purpose of being faster on a bike.

So I’m convinced these are totally different crowds, and converting a peloton user to a “serious” cyclist would involve educating them on a lot of different aspects of training and tech. I know someone like my wife barely has the bandwidth to fiddle with launching TR and pairing power, people are naturally kind of lazy and don’t want to think much at all, and I think the whole clip in and go aspect of spin classes appeals to people.

True enough. Leverage the platform to stay relevant. The fitness market is pretty fickle about hopping on the next big thing

Actually if you want to see what likely keeps TR up at night, look at the TraningPeaks Training Plan Store. The plan selection is huge and contains plans of all types from many sources including some of the top cycling coaches in the US. I’m sure there are some clinkers in there but as a whole it has a larger and way more diverse set of offerings than TR does and at least some of them are from way more credentialed coaches. Sure, you’ll have to run the workouts on your Garmin or Wahoo but that really isn’t any different than staring at the TR app. And, you can put them into Zwift too.

This is why TR is going whole hog on its calendar and analytics. They don’t want anyone looking at TrainingPeaks!

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Hard to read the entire thread so maybe this was already mentioned. Also, just my read on the situation but here it goes…

I don’t think it will have any or if so very little impact.

Peloton is for the mass fitness crowd. Moms, women in general, cardio focused men, people who want to avoid the gym, people that want to lose weight (err everyone basically), and the list goes on. The largest majority of the “get fit” population will fall into this crowd and I would bet that as a percentage of the user population Peloton has dramatically more women than TR or Zwift.

Zwift is for the crowd that is primarily cycling focused and is “game” for some indoor training. But as a percentage of the population it is a fraction of what Peloton has as a potential/actual user base. The valuation speaks for itself with the cap raise completed at the end of 2018. It may be a leader in the cycling crowd but the market share is just not there relative to the swath of the population Peloton has access to.

Trainerroad is for the “Get Faster” crowd. As a percentage of the population TR gets their market share not from the mass fitness crowd, not from the entire spectrum of cyclists crowd, but from the slice of cyclists that want to race/perform/get faster.

There are likely very few World Tour riders that will use Peloton and I’m sure they are fine with that as it’s not their market. Zwift has a pretty significant number of World Tour riders that use their platform (65 of 176 has been reported) but they also cross over into the general cyclist crowds and amateur race/esports crowds. A $B valuation for them is probably not that far from reality.

For TR, pros don’t need Coach Chad and I could be wrong but I don’t know of any World Tour guys using TR. Women at times use fitness classes as social opportunities and folks focused on weight loss need motivation and interaction. TR doesn’t really have either the social aspect or the interactive aspect covered other than the text at the bottom of the workout. It’s also pretty difficult relatively speaking and requires a lot of self motivation as their aren’t group classes or group rides to keep you coming back and you aren’t going to meet your friends on TR to do Baxter together.

For TR you really have to want to get faster and that’s not what Peloton is about.

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I forgot to mention before I would love to see more integration between Garmin / Tacx and TR to compete with Wahoo.

It is though very exciting times for all of us regardless if you are a peloton subscriber or not.

If anyone was not sure on who Peloton is trying to market to, google their Prospectus. It’s over 200 pages long and the word “cycle” or any other version is mentioned only 17 times, usually to describe stationary bikes a.k.a. Cycling machines. Fitness is mentioned over 550 times.

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You could do spanish needle on an outdoor ride but i don’t think you’d have a lot of friends left after that.

Friday afternoon humor via the Inbox:

:rofl:

a fun read, and a partial answer to my treadmill question:

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As author of the post, before putting forth any of my own thoughts, I wanted to see other TR user views. There have been lots of insightful comments. Thanks to everyone for your participation in the thread.

For those interested, here is my “2 cents":

When I first saw Wednesday’s announcement about Peloton’s definitive plan to go public on Thursday, I immediately put myself in Nate’s position to think about the impact Peloton’s IPO would have on “my business”. Lots of questions came to mind, but a couple of key ones were:

  • What opportunities would it create for TrainerRoad?
  • What new risks would it present, both short term and long term?

Opportunity: In the short term, Peloton’s creation of marketing awareness of fitness via indoor cycling represents a significant opportunity for the company. A quick analytics search of the words “Peloton" + “training" yields 1.4 million results while doing the same of “TrainerRoad" + “training" yields 0.5 million thus, represents a significant digital marketing campaign opportunity. [and not surprisingly, the broader search of “Peloton" + “cycling" is 10x that number].

Risks: The short term risks seem small. Peloton is clearly focused on market expansion both domestically (U.S.) and internationally, and continuing to broaden the customer base of its digital app - a definite competitor to TrainerRoad, but not one not likely to fundamentally change their business path in the short term.

However, the long term risks are quite significant. While perhaps it is not likely that Peloton will get into periodization, it is easy to envision Peloton expanding its training for fitness to training for improved performance (Think: TrainingPeaks training plans with an immersive experience).

I’m replying to you not because I’m disputing anything you’re saying here but just because you’re the last person to make the distinction between fitness and cycling.

I think there’s a broad muddling of concepts of fitness in this thread in which folks are talking about “fitness” and they mean something more like “weight management.” and that’s leading to strange distinctions between “getting fit” and “getting faster” as if those two things aren’t generally the same thing. Everyone here is using TR to improve fitness. And indeed, fitness literally means the degree to which you are fit to achieve a specific task (i.e., cycling faster).

I lay that out only to say I don’t think that folks that are training to just be fitter generally are all that different that folks that are training to race. To be clear, I am in the latter category, but I’m not sure I would enjoy this hobby as much without the added benefit that those in the former are seeking more explicitly.

I’m not trying to be such a pedant, though I realize I am. I’m just saying that I’m not totally sure we should think of the peloton folks as so different from the TR folks, because I think they’re all much more alike than they are different from most of the population generally. I’m not buying peloton stock for a lot of reasons specific to their model. But I’m all in on the industry. Those of us intimately familiar with it think that swift, TR, SF, peloton are all pretty different. They’re not except to those of us in the weeds of it. There is a massive latent market of folks who would start by wanting to just get fitter generally, get into cycling training, and want to get better. We can talk about not tying our self worth to FTP and that’s probably healthier but it’s massively motivating to have an objective measurement to improve.

I don’t think we should look at peloton’s number’s and think “how is this sustainable?” I think we should look at peloton’s numbers and think, “holy fuck, the barrier to entry here is massive and they’re still achieving this? What happens if it’s lower?”

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Zwift are thinking exactly they same, which is why they bought the license to that spin bike tech. They know that if they can ease the barrier to entry the their platform will explode. Not just with cyclists but with a more casual, fun seeking fitness crowd.

Tacx, Wahoo etc all have released their bikes now and they’re all too expensive for casuals still, so I’m wondering now if Zwift are going ahead with releasing their own budget all-in-one smart bike. Min did say they were watching and had spoken to the hardware companies about getting costs down, and if they didn’t they’d make their own move.

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