Vingegaard seems confident in his ability to match Pogacar and so far that’s been true. I think he’s betting on Stages 16 and 17, on matching or beating Pogacar in the ITT, and that he’ll be able to gap Pogacar on the final long consistent climb at the end of Stage 17. That climb profile probably better suits JV’s characteristics. I think it is a risky strategy. There are still multiple short punchy climbs in the remaining stages where Pogacar could easily gap JV for 10 seconds and Yates has been a great ally on climbs and I’m sure he’ll be expected to be there end of Stage 17.
From a spectator perspective, I’d love to see the final stage into Paris contested if the gap remains super close. Watching a celebratory parade into Paris with the race beginning with the wind up to the spring is a fun tradition, but a nail biter to the very end would be awesome. I’d love to see the two GC teams battling it out with the sprinter’s teams to win and get any bonus seconds (assuming there are some in the final stage).
We have no idea what the DS is saying in Jonas’ ear. I don’t think he was being an “idiot.” I’d bet that Jonas was expecting that Pog could match any attack Jonas put in.
I’d bet money that the DS was telling Jonas to save matches. I’ll refer to my earlier comment a few days ago about Pogacar running out of matches in week 3 because of his punchy racing style. Those last couple mountain stages at the end might be Pog’s undoing because he keeps firing off his wattage bazooka.
Right now, I think Jumbo is following a legit strategy. And if Jonas fires off attacks that just get shut down by Pog/UAE, every time he does that, that’s TSS that he’s going to pay for in 4 or 5 days. Yes, if Jonas looses, people will play the “coulda shoulda woulda” game. But I think they’re legit.
When Yates went ahead and JV didn’t follow he should have put as much time into jv as he could. Soler was still ahead if pog needed help. It was a waste for Yates to wait for Jv and pog. All they know now is that jv won’t chase him with the current gap but maybe he would if it was closer, especially if it’s earlier in a stage.
I hope the best man wins in the end. But I’m leaning a bit toward Jonas because last year people said that he couldn’t have won without his multiple super domestiques. But since Jumbo and UAE are much more evenly matched this year, I’d like him to have the satisfaction of saying that he still defended and won outright.
Am I the only one that saw Yates’ attack as an attempt to get Jonas to chase and then be in front of Tadej, setting Tadej up for an attack? Jonas did great not following that, then Carlos caught back on and Jonas couldn’t let that one go. If he was gonna take the lead in front of Tadej, I feel he should have tested him and seen if he could drop him. If I was either Tadej or Jonas, I wouldn’t be comfortable with 10 seconds.
It was certainly an attempt to play the 2 leader card but they didn’t follow it up with Soler dragging Yates in or Soler pacing Pog. I just attribute it to trying to do race math at the end of a hard stage after two weeks of racing.
I definitely saw Yates’ attack as a carrot dangle for Jonas. But the clear Jumbo strategy is for the Jumbo team to try to put the squeeze on UAE/Pog and Jonas’s job is to stick to Pog like glue and I think that’s a legit plan. Jonas is saving matches, I wouldn’t be surprised if in week three we see Pog crack just like last year.
Jonas looked really strong today. He might have been able to put some time into Pog had he tried, but I think he made the right call today riding defensively. It was 3 UAE riders and just Jonas. I think he was right to ignore Yates attack as a possible bluff. Although the gap is big, he had to respect Rodriguez and clearly he’s not bluffing.
The next two stages will likely determine the race. It’s an odd time trial with a short, steep climb towards the end. Everyone has indicated bike changes will NOT be in play so we get to see TT bike climbing. Then Stage 17 bring us Col de la Loze at the end of a tough day. I expect Jumbo to blow things up again and they’ll be betting Jonas can take enough time on Pog there that bonus seconds won’t matter.
IMO it’s increasingly lookijg like Pogacar is a tad more explosive, while Jonas is a bit of a better climber.
I guess the only thing that confuses me…is that…IF the above is true, why Vindegaaed would not go at his limit from the start of a hill climb finish. Some aspects of bike racing strategy honestly confuse me.
I won’t pretend I was dead certain in the heat of the moment, but the consensus from analysts after was that it was an obvious bluff to set him up for a counter.
I have grappled with complicated feelings for Pog since he came on the scene. How could you not like him as a rider and a person? He’s a truly generational talent and seems like a great person to boot. He always seems happy for whoever wins, he doesn’t take himself too seriously, he doesn’t make excuses.
Two things have historically held me back on him though. First and foremost is the team. I am not a fan of sport washing plain and simple. Beyond that, imagine we had Team USA in the Tour. Every rider with USA emblazoned on their chest… and not a single American on the tour squad. It’s absurd and it embodies the absurdity of that sponsorship to me.
The second thing is smaller, but he’s too good for me to empathize with. Success doesn’t come easily to me, making friends doesn’t come easily to me. I don’t resent him for being exceptional, but I don’t find him inspiring because I can’t see myself in him. Success comes too easily for him.
If he wins I can’t be mad, but I can’t make myself be excited either. I’ve tried.
I know you’re new to watching pro cycling, but Pog is extremely abnormal. He’s incredibly punchy. It’s almost unheard of to see someone who can climb like he does who can also be so explosive.
Jonas is a much more typical grand tour specialist. A pure climber with a good TT. For much of cycling history that was the recipe for success. Not a guarantee in the Pog era.
If Vin goes at his limit from the start, it’s a huge risk. For 1, he may misjudge the hill or how he feels. But most importantly, he doesn’t know how pog feels. If he is at his limit, and pogacar is feeling great, he will not be able to match any attacks, and likely to lose minutes. It would be a catastrophe. That kind of strategy is best reserved for last resort such as the Pog TT in 20 or Froome attack in the Giro.
“it has always been like this” is such a bad argument against change. They really need to do a better job at keeping riders safe. Without them there wouldn’t even be a race to enjoy.
Though I agree that it would be nice to have a friendlier crowd, it would be impossible to enforce 150 miles of road every day. The sheer number of law enforcement people needed would be a huge problem, not too mention prohibitively costly. It’s not like controlling 60-100k people in a stadium where there are choke points at the gates and property rules and security is off the field of play.
emblazoned on their chest… and not a single American on the tour squad. It’s absurd and it embodies the absurdity of that sponsorship to me.
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