Hmmm…tough to say since we have never really seen him race on the road. But I would think Liege or Lombardia could suit him, as well as some of the shorter, week-long, hilly stage races like Pais Vasco or Catalunya.
But honestly, he may just be a mid-tier rider in the WT (and that isn’t a knock on him).
I’m just saying that I think his best chance for getting better competition over here is a public call-out. I clearly don’t have the insider pro tour knowledge like others here, but I think it’s worth a shot.
You never know…… at least I don’t.
Gravel Worlds in Lincoln is causing some naming confusion nowadays. It used to be a funny jab back before gravel got all legitimate and grown up.
See y’all on the gravel seas.
But why would he do that? It’s not like his prize purse goes up. I see zero incentive.
Ask yourself this question. Do you think Keegan would be stoked if Pidcock, Shurter and Mass Pederson were coming to Leadville next year? Or do you think he’d be saying “Ah, bummer, maybe less prize money for me?”
I think he’d take the prize money. 100%
100%? Forum confidence is incredible.
It’s his JOB
The question about how Keegan would perform in the WT reminds me of the convos that people have about mid major college teams that have really good seasons in basketball/football.
The fans always think they can compete with the big schools. The naysayers give them no chance - “they are only undefeated because of their competition”. Both have been true. Steph Curry’s run with Davidson comes to mind. But even for the teams that don’t make, you still have to have to give them credit for doing everything they could to prove their talent.
That is how I feel about Keegan right now. We don’t know how he would perform at the next level. That said, he is doing everything he can to show his dominance in his field and deserves credit for it. Look at the other LTGP competitors; some have gotten sick, some have dug themselves in too deep of a hole, some have crashed and got injured, simply had a bad day, etc. Keegan, on the other hand, has nailed his training and won nearly every race he set out to (only missing out on Cheq40 last year because of minor crash in the mud on the last corner).
He would be much better financially served by beating those guys.
It doesn’t work like that. The world tour riders generally do what their teams direct them to do and have minimal pull to step outside that box. There may be some deviations from that (like EF’s alternative program), but most WT teams have their buckets full trying to be successful at WT events. With limited global media coverage of these us gravel events, it’s just not that interesting for the sponsors. We will keep getting a few WT riders fitting these events into their schedule, but it will be the exception to the rule unless something changes. Very little upside for marquee riders like wout or tade, lots of downside.
How? The purse doesn’t change because some famous Euros join the Lifetime tour.
That’s the point I’m trying to make.
If your boss said “I’m creating a competition that you’re clearly the best at, and at the end of the year, I’m giving the winner of the competition $50K”, do you reply, “you know what would make this way better, adding more competitive people to the competition”, or do you take the $50K?
How? Beating those guys in one race is not gonna make his sponsors throw more cash at him and the race purse doesn’t change.
There is a good conversation on Payson’s pod this week on this topic….he also raises the critical issue of lifestyle. Keegan gets to stay at home and basically pick his schedule….and be well compensated, too.
There just really isn’t any incentive for him to go to Europe and there is less incentive for Euro stars to come here.
Just to entertain the idea of how Keegan would fare vs euro pros…
For him to dominate it would have to be here on US soil and with the type of courses that he is best at. Leadville for example. For him to cross the pond would be for him to give up all of his advantages. Whether it’s Strada, any classic, or UCI Gravel Worlds - he will be competing on a euro soil, with euro distances, against euros and road racing tactics.
I think his advantages are definitely that the distances, self-supporting nature, and lack of road racing tactics due to race terrain lend him huge advantages.
So, for him, best chances of competing against WT pros is if they come this way and attempt to battle him on his home turf.
I’ll preface by saying I’m a Keegan fan…
He’s found his niche, and he’s great at it. He should continue to make the most of it for as long as he can, until the tides either turn on him as we/they get bored of his dominance, or until others start utilizing team tactics a bit more effectively to unseat him on occasion.
But to assume he’d be anything more than a mediocre World Tour rider is a bit ambitious. It only takes looking at the results sheets from the past year of racing… Sure he’s winning by several minutes in some instances, and against former World Tour pros(Howes, King, Stetina, TenDam, . But it doesn’t take much digging to see that none of those riders were even in the top 1000 in UCI Points rankings during their most recent years on the road aside from Petr Vakoc, who has been at least making Keegan work for it. Vakoc managed a top 20 a few years back at Strade, so there is one point to the other side of the argument. But with that, he has/had raced in Europe for over 15 years, with 9 of those on the WT level.
Showed up this year too, and didn’t fare nearly as well though…
100% he would be stoked. He’d see it as a challenge and probably train that much harder.
He had issues in the mud….wouldn’t read too much into it other than that.
How so?
Who’s gonna pay him? You?
As an American it’s fun to think he could light the world tour on fire so I see the temptation people have for that. I’ve wondered the same myself but losing to a pro conti rider (Ivar) was a pretty big glass of cold water on that one for me.
Yes, he came back and won the next year and yes he beats former world tour riders but the key word is former, and none of the key ones (Stetina, Lachlan, Vermeulen) had any kind of results in the WT. To my knowledge, no one in the Lifetime grand prix has ever won a .UWT race. Maybe someone has, but everyone I spot checked had won .1 or .2 races at best which are 2 to 3 tiers below an actual world tour race.
I think Keegan is amazing. I’m a fat sack of crap compared to the majority of age group athletes, let alone the very worst person in the grand prix. I’m not trying to arm chair quarterback and my gut is that he could ride world tour if he wanted, but there just isn’t objective evidence that he would win true world tour (.UWT) level races. Maybe he could and I’m definitely not arguing that there’s zero chance, just that there’s not the overwhelming evidence people seem to feel there is.