I have a theory on this, and I don’t think it is only affecting the pro peloton: Covid Fitness.
Some examples: A Cat 4/5 race I was in two weeks ago averaged 26 mph for the race. Prior to the pandemic, a 24 mph average (sometimes closer to 25) was more common in races in this category. Also, the group rides around me in Chicago all seem to have kicked it up a notch. C groups are averaging 20 mph now (were 16-17) with B at 22ish (were 20) and A is charging to 27 or 28 (were 26+). Hell there’s one ride that averages 28-29 mph every week right now that blows my mind every time I see those folks post on Strava.
Practically everybody is talking about how much faster the rides are now, too. It’s not just something I’m perceiving.
To me, Covid fitness is a legit and real thing, and I fully believe it affected the peloton as well. A year of structured, rigid training and dialed nutrition plans without work travel or races to disrupt or throw off the process? For an amateur that can lead to massive changes (it certainly has for me), and I imagine the same is true for the pro peloton but on a different level/scale.
This theory doesn’t account for Pogacar’s performance so much as ties into your thoughts that a light switch has been flipped. It just points to how much harder and faster folks have been as we emerge from the coronavirus pandemic.
When De Gendt says he put out a career best 10-minute power to start stage 8 and he got dropped, you know the level has jumped up a lot. Curious about the numbers, I took a look at Sepp Kuss’ Strava for the start of that stage since he usually posts with his power meter for raw numbers, and the first 9.5 mins of the race he averaged 412 watts (6.8 w/kg). Similarly, yesterday’s stage winner Ben O’Connor also posted and averaged 6.5 w/kg (436) for 9.5 mins at the start of stage 8. It seems actually bonkers what we’re seeing right now.