Pogacar wins, Vingegaard is second, Vlasov in third. Roglic gets covid. WVA is leading in the points classification then has a crash putting him far behind and then hunts for stage wins.
According to CyclingTips Vlasov got COVID at the tour de Suisse, so I doubt he’s podiuming at the Tour, if he even starts
Demond’s how severe it is…WVA had COVID in the spring and was flying when he came back at P-R.
All 13 test hot for c19 after Stage 5 but no real symptoms. Forced to drop out of race. Enterprising Zwift contacts them and they all decide to compete for virtual GC on new Tour de Zwift stages 6-21 course.
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Neilson Powless takes 2 stage wins #wishfulthinking
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Better: he takes the polka dot jersey.
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I “rode” it yesterday while doing Taylor -2 on TR - thanks to Bike the World on YT. Definitely looks breezy. Mmmmm… echelons…
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Have a good look at the first seven stages.
It looks almost designed for some MVDP chaos 
My take. MVDP does crazy things and keeps us thoroughly entertained for the first week. After that, it turns into a regular, somewhat predictable TDF.
However, the likelihood of Covid causing strife is high. This is far from ideal, but could cause the final weeks to be more chaotic than usual.
The fact that the Netflix series is being filmed this year and is following some of the star riders, this will further ramp up the spectacle.
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All the favorites drop out by stage 10 with C-19 positives, Froomie takes yellow and keeps it til Paris. Hot Take of the Century. You heard it hear first
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Not gonna happen as long as he’s forced to use disc brakes.
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The whole problem with Froome is he’s forced to ride disc brakes and they are holding him back. If he could be on rim brakes like Pog on the climbing stages he would be battling him for the win. 
For those think Thomas is finished, Lanterne Rouge puts him 2/3rd: Can Geraint Thomas Podium the Le Tour de France? Lanterne Rouge & Benji Naesen Discuss - YouTube
Reasons: long TT, 1st week classics stages, strength of squad etc. Vlasov (and Yates?) have COVID, Rog tendency to crash.
Personal take; If Jonas has team orders and IG fully support Thomas I just can’t see all these other climbers who would consistently climb better AND not lose time anywhere else AND not give up a load of time over a long TT, which is what they would have to do to come top 5. Who is odds on to do all that?
40K is not a long TT. Maybe in recent tours, but overall, not really. Plus it is the penultimate stage…the mountains will likely decide the race well before then.
Yeah, but so does Thomas…in fact, I would say this is more of a negative against Thomas than Roglic.
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Minor detail about relativity of TT length, but in terms of a TT after mountains stage deciding a grand Tour…you seem to have forgotten a certain Pog vs Rog in TdF 2020 and Hindley vs Geoghan Hart in the Giro that year etc etc. Not always critical, but there’s a reason ASO designs the course they do.
Don’t disagree he’s exited recent GT’s, 3 to be precise, but his entire history, let’s be reminded that for 11 Tour starts he’s had 1 single DNF 5 years ago (Majka crashing in front of him on a descent) and those ‘maladies’ can’t have been all that otherwise he wouldn’t have managed 15 podium finishes, 4 stage wins and 15 yellow jerseys. If he’s always been struck by some form of malady, I’d say he does ok.
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My top four predictions
Pog
Thomas
Carapaz
Roglic
Can’t see anyone overcoming Pog - seems to be coming into form and has had a relatively sensible build up.
Thomas I think is very motivated and I think his run of bad luck at major events won’t continue
I feel Roglic has fallen off a bit (all relative of course) compared to the others - a subjective view admittedly
Guess I’m picking the obvious so no surprises there
Being the tour - there is always the ‘incident’ factor that could mess things up 
Only the 2 GC podiums in Grand Tours though. His bad luck doesn’t normally come in the form of race-ending crashes but crashes or injuries that cost him enough time to put him out of GC contention. And being pretty much the consummate team rider, as long as he can still turn the pedals he’ll keep riding. Notably the year he got through the Tour with a fractured pelvis! That selflessness also made it hard to know if he could actually be a GC contender, since for many years he spent so much energy protecting Froome that he inevitably had a bad day where he lost time simply through fatigue.
The point I was countering was that his career is strewn with crashes or has bad luck - not denying he has had some notable injuries but if these maladies are so consistent then his record is unusually good for such a trouble-stricken rider.
Regards his chances of a podium this year - I think they are pretty good given outside of Pog/Rog/Jonas, I’m not convinced there’s clear competition (sub-par Vlasov etc). All it would take is some of this bad luck that he ‘always’ has to happen to any of those three and I think he would be very well placed to take another TdF podium. I don’t agree with Lanterne Rouge, he’s firmly 4th favourite for me (and I really want Jonas and Pogacar to battle it out week 3).
I’d say the other way round, his record is unusually bad for a Tour de France winner! 16 Grand Tour starts, only 2 podiums, and no other top 10 finishes apart from those 2 podiums. He’s really good at finishing Grand Tours, he’s really bad (given his ability) for finishing in a good position. By comparison Simon Yates who is also known for having bad days and who I would say isn’t as good as Thomas on their respective best days, has 13 GT starts, same 2 podiums, but 3 other top 10 finishes. Or for that matter Thibaut Pinot, who has DNFed half of the 14 GTs he’s started, but finished top 10 in 5 of the 7 that he’s actually completed.
I’d put Enric Mas ahead of Thomas as a podium contender. 7 GT starts, 2 podiums and 3 other top 6 finishes. Rides consistently and stays near the top. Or Bardet who has 6 top 10 finishes out of 12 starts, including 2 podiums.
Don’t know whether Thomas is genuinely unlucky, or his handling isn’t the best, or he gets himself in bad positions in the pack, or has moments where he loses concentration, or maybe just that he is so selfless that if he’s not in podium position he just sacrifices himself for the team where other riders like Mas or Bardet would keep battling for a top 10. Probably a combination. But given his track record I wouldn’t be placing any bets on him for a podium! (also sincerely hope he proves me completely wrong)
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It’s apples and oranges really. As you say in your last paragraph he sacrifices himself for teammates. He’s only ridden a small number of GTs as leader and amongst those he’s won the Tour and come second (when the stage was cut short and who knows what might’ve been).
Pinot, Yates, Mas have all been riding as clear leaders in their team where a top 10 is meaningful for the team.
He’s 36 years old. The way I see it, that’s the end of the discussion on GT.
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