I’m looking at the favorites according to the betting odds, and there are a few interesting observations:
Colombia seems to be the powerhouse nation when it comes to good riders, they have 8 of the top 31 favorites and their combined odds are over 36%. (of course most of this is Egan)…but still remarkable when you adjust for population, gdp per capita and commercial interests. The smart bet is that a Colombian will win the TdF.
French riders are over represented in number relative to their skill, but appropriately represented given commercial interests.
Jumbo has the strongest team with 5 favorites and 36% odds. The smart bet is that a Jumbo guy will win the TdF.
These are the guys that in my opinion, given the implied odds, offer the best risk/reward:
Richard Carapaz
Miguel Angel Lopez
Sergio Higuita
Dani Martinez
Talent wise Landa really stands out, has he got the the team though. 40/1 is worth a punt given the uncertainty around other riders. Hoping Pinot can do it though.
Quite possible that due to the Coronavirus that the Colombian riders have a slight edge on the rest of the peleton having been able to consistently train at altitude. It should be interesting, though my money is on Roglic. I am considering dropping a small wager on M.A. Lopez as well. Those odds are tempting for a rider that has everything needed to win.
Maybe also helps that there is now so much information in the public domain on how pros train, eat, recover, etc. Means anybody with an Internet connection can get a pretty good understanding of what they need to do, even in the absence of many of the development pathways that exist in Europe.
If there was more TT kms then I think Roglic would be unbeatable. Provided he has recovered from his fall at the Dauphine then I still favour him to win, if Kruijswijk was fit I woud have said Jumbo would be unbeatable as a team - they have Bennet, Kuss, Van Aert, Dumoulin, Martin even without the injured dutchman…the power is incredible and even Ineos at their best in Sky days would struggle to live with that - and they all appear to be behind Roglic as opposed to just SAYING they are…I hope he does it - I’m a huge fan of his back story and his team in general:
Alright…less than a week to go. We got through the Dauphine better than I expected (COVID-wise), so I have increased hopes that we may actually get through the Tour. Let’s see your Podium Picks, Jersey winners and one surprise /shocking pick.
Podium Picks
Bernal
Buchmann
Dani Martinez
Maillot Vert
Wout Van Aert
Maillot Pois
Mikel Landa
Maillot Blanc
Bernal (by default since he wins the race)
I’m going to go against most conventional wisdom so in 3 weeks either I look like a genius or I’m completely forgotten.
Podium Picks:
Dumoulin
Nairoman
Pogacar
Maillot Vert
Ewan
Maillot Pois
Alaphillippe
Maillot Blanc
Pogacar
Surprise Pick
Bernal has the yellow until stage 19, then gets a false positive test knocking him out of the race. (Possibly because a landslide hits the testing center and mixes up his samples)
