Long-term it’s tougher, as Apple will keep creeping onto their turf in these areas. I think a lot of the focus of this thread is missing the point of Apple and power meters: This isn’t about competing with bike computers.
It’s about competing with other watch companies. Apple is playing the long game here. The very long game. They’re slowly ticking away reasons why you might need a Garmin watch (or any other competitor).
Last year, it was about removing battery life (with Ultra) as an objection for 90%+ of athletic use cases. They did that. They also removed most barriers associated with running metrics. And they removed some barriers associated with screen size and visibility (though, I’d argue it’s still tough to use with gloves or wet conditions). Same goes for structured workouts. They also removed the barrier related to triathlon support - heck, it probably does it better than Garmin does.
This year, it’s removing purchasing barriers related to cycling stuff. As well as 3rd party apps API to push structured workouts. TrainingPeaks is onboard, and TrainerRoad could so so too if they wanted to (and frankly, they’d be wise to). You scan likewise start to see them laying the groundwork for maps as the next frontier.
Next year will be about mapping, routing, and all things navigation. Again, removing barriers/objections.
There will always be people that want more advanced sports functions - and right now, Garmin is clearly the leader in there. For every sports-focused item I outlined above, Garmin tends to do it 10x better and deeper. But there are cracks in that. Take running track mode. Apple’s is better is you live in a supported country: It just works, instantly. But Garmin’s is better for the other 170+ countries. Yet Garmin actually has more track data than Apple. Why doesn’t Garmin split the difference and do both modes?
Garmin has to get out of the ‘do everything on the device’ mentality. They need to start leveraging their cloud services more. Not in a ‘must always be connected’ way, but in a ‘we have a ton of data we can leverage’. Garmin has long held the belief that you can buy their device at a store and never connect it to the internet. It’s still true today for 99.99% of features. Never update it if you don’t want to. While that’s enviable, I think they’re starting to pigeon-hole themselves in areas.
All that said, what Garmin is really good at doing is rolling out features that athletes want. I think it’s easy to forget when you see seemingly incremental upgrades every 14-18 months from Garmin (e.g. Fenix 7 to Fenix 7 Pro). But when you step back, Garmin releases more features than Apple does on that release cadence. And then you step back further into the lens of a 3-4 year cycle, and the increases in functionality is insane. Sure, not everyone uses every feature, but everyone has their own “I need this” feature. It’s what’s largely crushed competitors like Wahoo in the bike computer space.
Finally, I think it’s impressive to see what real-world market share looks like. A very simple tests is just get on an airplane and look at what people are actually wearing as they board and walk down the aisle. None of this supposed ‘market study’ stuff that’s mostly just guesses, and often heavily skewed towards promotional activity in countries that have low long term usage. These days, it’s overwhelmingly Apple Watch & Garmin’s, with Samsung and the odd Fitbit tossed in.
People are buying Garmin that aren’t TrainerRoad users. Nor would they ever imagine that something like TrainerRoad exists. They’re buying a Garmin because the battery life is good, and the smart features are good enough. And they might vaguely do something fitness focused (especially on the Fenix/Epix lines, where many people are buying them more for looks/style than anything fitness related).