Brand new TR user here. Came from SYSTM. New to structured training. Previously just cycled fairly hard for an hour. I’m 41, 74kg, and healthy (touch wood).
From August - November, I took training more seriously, and went from an untrained 200 ballpark ftp to 260. I was concerned I might be over training, and decided to go structured. For that, I liked the sound of TR’s adaptive approach. I’ve set up a 3 month ‘aggressive’ plan.
My (arbitrary) goal is a 300ish FTP, with the hope of attempting some ‘real world’ cycling in the spring / summer.
My question: Is there any way to tell if this plan will get me to that goal? I’m talking rough ballpark numbers on what an average joe like me might gain, if he sticks to the plan and there are no surprises.
Your ceiling is determined by your training, but also your individual physiology and genetics. It might be easy for you, it might never happen.
With that said, you can only find out what your ceiling is by putting in place a good training plan and being consistent with it, fueling well, recovering well. And, being careful about doing too much intensity and being too aggressive - that might help, but also might hurt you and inhibit gains.
For you having gains gone from 200->260, I’d bet that 300 is possible but I’d also expect the rate of improvement to slow down and having to put in more and more work to drive your threshold higher.
Big gains are easily done at the beginning of a structured training plan. The gains do not come as easily as we get fitter. While I’m sure you can get to the magic 300 number you desire. It may take longer than you expected. The key is to add just the right amount of stress with the right amount of recovery.
4w per kg is a very high goal especially for your age with no endurance training history. the 260w are already very impressive in that short amount of time.
while i see a few people on the forum that say they achieved 4w/kg with low mid volume. the only real world examples i personally know all ride 10+ hours a week minimum.
so my answer is you can get there probably but i doubt it will happen sub 10hours a week.
Depending on what the ‘real world’ cycling is that you plan on doing, there might be other things to consider too.
Going from 3.5W/kg to 4W/kg in 12 weeks is certainly possible for many people, but it is impossible for many other people. But, for someone new to structured training, there is a chance that it will be a fragile FTP. By that I mean it might be the number you can hit on a ramp test, but it might not be the power you can hold for an hour or so. Moreover it might not mean that you can ride comfortably with a cycling club group for much longer periods of time.
Think about the real world cycling you are planning to do. If that involves, say, 4 and 5 hour rides, then a plan that just involves 1 hour workouts will be less optimal for that than a plan with longer rides in it.
With the aggressive plan, take a lot of notice of how you feel as you go through it. Do not be afraid to dial it back, or substitute a workout for an easier one if the fatigue is building up quicker than you can cope with. Give honest answers to the workout feedback at the end of each session.
Impressively responsive forum. Kudos to the community here.
To summarize, prediction of ftp gains is a fools errand. Consequently, even having an FTP goal for a given training period isn’t sensible, because that’s just another name for an expected gain.
And a few people encouraged caution and sensible adjustment to the aggressive plan. Much appreciated. So far, the sessions feel a bit easy, but I gather this phase is just laying foundations for the harder sessions later.
For my real cycling, yes, I’m thinking of trying to join some local group rides. I’ll definitely need some practice - my sit bones / tissue get pretty sore beyond an hour. A minute out of the saddle every so often seems to help, but I think I just need more hours in the saddle.
I’m also considering some solo rides, maybe 50km, certainly less than 100km. I’ll post in the equipment section for some pointers for that.
There are many group rides where your current FTP 3.5W/kg is more than enough to keep with the pace of the group. Finding a decent local group / club is a fantastic way to quickly learn more about all aspects of cycling.
Your first 100km solo ride is likely to a ~4 hour ride. Endurance, feeding, hydration and comfort on the bike will be significant factors to have a plan for.
Consider swapping some longer workouts into your plan - sort of as if they were a weekly club ride - to get you used to spending more time on the bike in a single ride.
Keep in mind that a harder session can be harder by being longer, just as much as by being higher intensity.
Take a look at workouts that are lower intensity and that have a bit of variety in them as a starting point e.g. two hour rides like Perkins -1 or Baxter +2
You might find a tweak to the position of the saddle / bars etc. makes it more comfortable, but you are right that more time on the bike will help,
When cycling outdoors / in a group it is likely that you will be out of the saddle more than when you are on the trainer.
As other athletes mentioned, it can be difficult to predict where we can get with our training… The only way to find out is to “get after it,” as @BCM said!
That said, going from 200W to 260W is impressive work.
To find out if you can reach 300W or not, you’ll just have to keep up with your training… Simple as that! Just recall that gains tend to slow down as you get more experience, as with most things… But they surely do continue to come if you continue to put in the work.
Also remember that fitness may come in ways beyond your FTP – even if you go through periods where your FTP doesn’t move too much, you may still find that you can hold power in given zones for much longer than you once could, and/or that you can repeat hard efforts for more reps than before, and/or that you feel fresher at the end of long rides… While FTP is important, it’s not the only aspect of your fitness that will grow as you train!
And kudos on wanting to get out on some local group rides – I think you’ll find that riding with others is an excellent way to push your limits and further develop your fitness and skills as a rider.
One thought after reading that your sit bones/tissue gets sore after about an hour of being in the saddle: it might be worth looking into having a bike fitting done so you can ride in more comfort. Part of being able to ride for hours certainly comes with practice, but that ability can be greatly improved with a good bike fit – things like the right saddle, the right handlebars, the right cleat positioning, etc… all add up to a balance/comfort that will allow you to spend extended periods of time out on the bike.
Hope that info helps you out – feel free to let us know if you have any additional questions!
