Brand new TR user here. Came from SYSTM. New to structured training. Previously just cycled fairly hard for an hour. I’m 41, 74kg, and healthy (touch wood).
From August - November, I took training more seriously, and went from an untrained 200 ballpark ftp to 260. I was concerned I might be over training, and decided to go structured. For that, I liked the sound of TR’s adaptive approach. I’ve set up a 3 month ‘aggressive’ plan.
My (arbitrary) goal is a 300ish FTP, with the hope of attempting some ‘real world’ cycling in the spring / summer.
My question: Is there any way to tell if this plan will get me to that goal? I’m talking rough ballpark numbers on what an average joe like me might gain, if he sticks to the plan and there are no surprises.
Your ceiling is determined by your training, but also your individual physiology and genetics. It might be easy for you, it might never happen.
With that said, you can only find out what your ceiling is by putting in place a good training plan and being consistent with it, fueling well, recovering well. And, being careful about doing too much intensity and being too aggressive - that might help, but also might hurt you and inhibit gains.
For you having gains gone from 200->260, I’d bet that 300 is possible but I’d also expect the rate of improvement to slow down and having to put in more and more work to drive your threshold higher.
Big gains are easily done at the beginning of a structured training plan. The gains do not come as easily as we get fitter. While I’m sure you can get to the magic 300 number you desire. It may take longer than you expected. The key is to add just the right amount of stress with the right amount of recovery.
4w per kg is a very high goal especially for your age with no endurance training history. the 260w are already very impressive in that short amount of time.
while i see a few people on the forum that say they achieved 4w/kg with low mid volume. the only real world examples i personally know all ride 10+ hours a week minimum.
so my answer is you can get there probably but i doubt it will happen sub 10hours a week.
Impressively responsive forum. Kudos to the community here.
To summarize, prediction of ftp gains is a fools errand. Consequently, even having an FTP goal for a given training period isn’t sensible, because that’s just another name for an expected gain.
And a few people encouraged caution and sensible adjustment to the aggressive plan. Much appreciated. So far, the sessions feel a bit easy, but I gather this phase is just laying foundations for the harder sessions later.
For my real cycling, yes, I’m thinking of trying to join some local group rides. I’ll definitely need some practice - my sit bones / tissue get pretty sore beyond an hour. A minute out of the saddle every so often seems to help, but I think I just need more hours in the saddle.
I’m also considering some solo rides, maybe 50km, certainly less than 100km. I’ll post in the equipment section for some pointers for that.
As other athletes mentioned, it can be difficult to predict where we can get with our training… The only way to find out is to “get after it,” as @BCM said!
That said, going from 200W to 260W is impressive work.
To find out if you can reach 300W or not, you’ll just have to keep up with your training… Simple as that! Just recall that gains tend to slow down as you get more experience, as with most things… But they surely do continue to come if you continue to put in the work.
Also remember that fitness may come in ways beyond your FTP – even if you go through periods where your FTP doesn’t move too much, you may still find that you can hold power in given zones for much longer than you once could, and/or that you can repeat hard efforts for more reps than before, and/or that you feel fresher at the end of long rides… While FTP is important, it’s not the only aspect of your fitness that will grow as you train!
And kudos on wanting to get out on some local group rides – I think you’ll find that riding with others is an excellent way to push your limits and further develop your fitness and skills as a rider.
One thought after reading that your sit bones/tissue gets sore after about an hour of being in the saddle: it might be worth looking into having a bike fitting done so you can ride in more comfort. Part of being able to ride for hours certainly comes with practice, but that ability can be greatly improved with a good bike fit – things like the right saddle, the right handlebars, the right cleat positioning, etc… all add up to a balance/comfort that will allow you to spend extended periods of time out on the bike.
Hope that info helps you out – feel free to let us know if you have any additional questions!
