I’ve done a fair bit of indoor and outdoor cycling over the past 5 years (averaging at least 3 TR rides per week). My FTP was around 265 (3.75 wpkg) at the end of May but since then I’ve probably ridden my bike no more than a few times and always easy rides with friends - don’t know why, just concentrated on running and playing soccer, strength etc. TR AI says my FTP is now 193 4 months later…. Is this really right? I’m gonna get going later this week with some winter TR sessions…. Guess just go with the flow and let TR AI manage it and enjoy the increases
My FTP at the beginning of August was about the same as yours….basically 2 months off due to some health issues and my FTP dropped to 230.
So your drop, across a longer period of time, seems reasonable.
It’s probably better at estimating an increase in FTP from lots of completed sessions than it is estimating a depleted FTP from having done no sessions (no data individual to you).
Do a session or two, if it’s way too easy nudge it up a few watts. But train properly, don’t just whack it back up to where it was out of vanity or disbelief. Try some long sweet spot intervals, or some long zone 2 and see if your heart rate is stable or escalates. The kind of sessions that will prove if your new number is in the the right ball park or not.
Try a couple of rides and see how it feels. If it feels way wrong, do a ramp test and see what that tells you.
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I can see riders potentially losing that much in that time, and the AI system basically uses a fitness atrophy model if there is not really stimulus.
If you’re pretty far removed from any real training, I’d honestly do a ramp test or some maximal sessions to see where you are already at, and be ready for those numbers to increase pretty quickly at first as well.
Yeah fair - just surprised it’s dropped that much. I’ve got my 5KM running time down from 23:30 to 21:00 so hopefully still have aerobic fitness but can defintely see muscle definition in quads has reduced
Will do a few sessions and see - of course the correct answer is ramp test but those things are just nasty
This isn’t 100% applicable to your circumstances, but there are parallels.
I just watched this video of Alex Dowsett doing a ramp test - following a period of less focus on the bike, including a holiday - at the start of a training block for the London 3 day track event that he is racing at the end of this month.
He comes out of it with 331W FTP, versus his pro level of 415W. I don’t know how the 331 compares to his power for the 50 mile TT he talks about in the video. That was at the end of June and he placed 3rd with 1h38m02s (4m16s behind the winner).
I watched it because the of the title “8 hrs a week vs 30 hrs a week, what’s the biggest difference” not knowing that it would be mostly about a ramp test, but I found it interesting enough to fill 18 minutes of today’s tempo workout.
Hey there,
It’s possible that your FTP has dropped to about 193W, but it’s hard to say for sure without data. If you haven’t been feeding AI FTP Detection any ride data lately, it will give you an estimate as best as it can, but it may not be 100% bang on.
You could always do a Ramp Test if you’re unsure of your FTP at the moment. And as you said above, Adaptive Training will get you dialed in as you work your way through your plan. 
Enjoy getting back into training and feel free to let me know if you have any other questions!
I’ve had a couple of forced layoffs the bike . Like the OP i thought my revised AI FTP must be out.
Unfortunately the AI was spot on . A couple of intervals sorts your perspective out !
Wishing the OP a speedy return for his FTP👍