So that’s significant! I never did the experiment myself. But I went from 322 W peak FTP (4.4–4.5 W/kg) to 348 W (4.7 W/kg) when I changed my nutrition and sleep.
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Those numbers are pretty similar to my own. Peak this summer was over/under 344 W. If we use 350W for convenience, that’s (350 J/sec) * (60sec/min) * (45min) = 945kJ output in 45min, which based on simple assumptions of human efficiency is also in the ballpark of 945 Calories. While my knowledge of the body’s stored quantities and oxidation rates of stored glycogen during intense exercise is only at the surface level, intuitively it makes sense that as the stored amounts drop beyond some level, so would the oxidation rates. We seem to be on the same page here, and the “conventional wisdom” of not needing fuel for rides of up to an hour isn’t something I agree with.
Pogacar is going to burn through his glycogen stores far faster than someone of the same mass whose FTP is 250W, so unless he can also store nearly double what that person can, his need for refueling at intensity becomes relevant significantly sooner.
My zero-evidence suspicion is that above approximately 300W FTP efforts, the need for fueling during those efforts increases. When I wasn’t as fit it seemed like I could hold my threshold power for a bit longer without taking in any fuel.
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