How long until you reached the end of 'newbie gains'?

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I am one of those guys that’s returned to cycling in later life.

I raced as a kid, until the age of about 16 and then (sadly) barely touched a bike until I started cycling in April 2022. Pretty much overnight, I went from not cycling, to cycling at least 100-150km a week. In the last 30 months, I’ve ridden 36000km or so, of which about half is gravel. I’m 40, 203cm, 102kg.

My training is increasingly structured now, with specific sessions targetting VO2 max climbing, threshold, Z2, sprints etc. This structure has really only developed in the last couple of months, but this year has been really excellent as a whole. I ride just over 300km/11-12hrs a week on average.

My FTP continues to rise. My first tests coincided with me purchasing my first power meter 12 months ago. It was about 340w then.

It seems to be in the 425-435w region at the moment, though maybe a touch higher as the 484w/8 min effort was the day after some pretty intense sprint intervals. I was chasing a 19yr old elite level enduro rider up a gravel climb, and was only 3 seconds behind him at the top.

https://www.strava.com/activities/12995281749/segments/3296871535847047192

My question is: I’m 2.5 years into training and it’s been very consistent and increasingly structured. I’ve put almost 100w onto my FTP this year and it still seems to be going up. How much longer can I expect this to continue? My watts per kilo are still pretty modest, but in absolute terms, my FTP is fairly high.

You can’t live life with regret, but I wish I’d continued with cycling more seriously as a kid. I wonder where I would have been now - probably some sort of mega wind-sheltering domestique, as I cut through the air like a log cabin :smiley:

Thanks in advance for any guidance. I’m just trying to mentally prepare myself for when I stop making relatively easy gains!

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Have you verified this FTP by seeing how long you can hold the number?
I don’t know if anyone can answer “how long newbie gains will last”. There’s more to fitness than your ftp, which I’ve learned in the past couple years. My ftp might not rise much when I plateau but my ability to hold my ftp and repeat efforts can be improved.
I think at some point we all plateau within the constraints of hours we can train.

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I only seem to be able to get 100% of my power out whilst climbing (which is my favourite aspect of cycling).

Back in July I was in Norway. Did 800km/15,000m elevation in 8 days, which included the fairly famous Lysebotn. I did 45m at 403w, with 90km in my legs. I’ve since been back to Norway and did Juvasshytta, Blåhoe and Tron (all over an hour) at 368-387w, two of which were on the same day.

https://www.strava.com/activities/11919964401/segments/3249040274655125260

I completely agree about the limited relevance of FTP. There is a lot more to performance. I am, for example, completely useless at sprinting. It’s something that needs a tonne of work as I’ve only seen 1396w so far, and really I ought to be doing 3-500w more.

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Define “newbie gains”.

In all seriousness, it is impossible to define. yeah, we can all agree that we are talking about the large gains in fitness newer cyclists can enjoy while they build their aerobic engines, but what defines “large”? Even them individual physiology plays a huge role in determining the pace of your gains. Volume also plays a significant factor, as well.

It takes years to build your aerobic engine properly, during which time you may still enjoy significant gains, but the rate of improvement will almost always be slowing during that period. The more you build your aerobic engine, the more the pace of improvement slows down.

“It depends”. I know that isn’t the answer you are looking for, but it is really variable.

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This will vary wildly by individual.

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Not much longer. Check back to us in 3 months and I can almost guarantee % wise your gains at very close to the asymptote.

That doesn’t matter at all because you can:

Get leaner and meaner
Extend your TTE
Improve your durability
Raise your Fatmax
Work on your sprint
Improve technique
Get more aero

IOW you can still get faster, a lot faster

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I came from a different sport and went from a high baseline ftp of about 4 w/kg to about 25% higher in 3 years of structured training. I probably made 15-20 of that 25% gain in the first year and eeked out the rest doing the same training over the next 2 years. I’ve since been able to a high percentage of that once highest fitness level with considerably less training. In hindsight, I’d describe the whole 3 years as newbie gains, but I was a college level athlete so it wasn’t like an ‘off the couch’ success storyline by any means.

I’d say you’ve prob had your big bump but will keep creeping up so long as you keep riding a lot as you are. With your baseline power, your future big gains would be shaving off some kgs of body weight if you care to do so.

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Thank you for all the really interesting and useful contributions. It’s good to get an idea of other people’s experiences.

I cycle sometimes with a guy from the village who has competed internationally in triathlon. He came to the sport later in life too and he said he had about 4 years before he plateaued off.

Weight loss is certainly something to consider too. Strictly speaking, I could lose weight, but I’m already very lean and if I took off more than a few kg, it’d be mainly upper body muscle, which I’m not keen on the idea of.

But then if I qualify for the Gravel Worlds in Nice, the course seems to be 138km with 3400m elevation and every kilo will count!

Thanks again folks

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I went fairly hard on gravel today. 100km, 31.1kph average, 1334m elevation gain, 375w NP (335w actual).

That’s quite close to my ceiling at the moment if I’m riding solo. I have probably an extra 5-8% in there if I’m racing.

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