I’ll go against the grain here and say it is achievable. Untrained, I was 192W @ 64kg (Oct 2019). Last test was 263W @ 64kg (Jun 2020) but I had fallen off the structured train by April-ish. That’s averaging 4-5hrs at start and 6-7hrs in the second half.
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I will say that of course it’s achievable. What makes it easier:
- You’re young, like under 21.
- You’re light (a bit associated with youth)
- You have a LOT of time for training and sleep.
- You have a background in competitive athletics. If you were a great swimmer or runner, for example. But you have a strong aerobic engine and you know what it is, mentally, to handle long durations of intensive training.
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Yeah, I think what you and others are suggesting to the OP is that if you’re serious about riding and racing and improving, 4.7 w/kg or bust can easily lead to failure. You might start slowly and think, this is all BS, and drop it.
If you’re just focused on training well up until the race, and see where you are, that’s more likely to lead to less stress but also the desired outcome.
Imo.
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I wish you all the success you seek. But making a 12-month attainment of the power you believe you’ll need to achieve your long-term goal seems a bit incongruent. Nevertheless, I hope you can do it.
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As others said, you should really have process goals (“I will train consistently 10 hours per week because that will make me more fit”) rather than outcome goals (“I need to reach an FTP of 4.7 W/kg”).
In endurance sports, a long term goal is really multiple years long.
Also, winning a bike race in the top category (if there’s a decent sized field), is about a lot more than just fitness. You also need the right equipment, fit, handling skills, race strategy, race tactics, potentially the right teammates willing to work for you, and luck.
What type of racing are you trying to do?
If you look at the top 10 finishers, I bet you will only see a loose correlation with W/kg.
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How long have you been training? If your new and dedicated its possible. Or have good athletic background or good genetic.
This is my experience doing TR, When I first started my initial ramp is 168 after a year i reached 282 its 67% increase with 7-11hrs a week but this is just newbie gains.
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Based on info given, it’s very unlikely you could take your FTP from 186 to 325 that quick. The only situation where i’d see that happening is If the 186 was a pure off the couch number and you have very good genetics or past aerobic fitness that you just need to wake up. Basically, the 186 would need to be your totally out of shape doing nothing in years number to have a shot at a 75% increase in 7 months. Huge % gains can be made quickly when the starting point is very low fitness. And you’d still need the genetics. If you genetic potential is ~350 watts FTP, hitting 325 could take years unless you have been there before. But if your genetic potential is 425w, getting to 325 pretty quick from a point of no fitness could be possible.
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So your 37% is indicative OP can pull off 75%?
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In half a year of semi-consistent low/mid volume training I went 3wkg to 4.1wkg. Peaked at 4.5wkg with 7-8hrs/week of inconsistent training within the first year. All that at 40 years old. So yeah, given consistent 10-15hr/week training, I see no reason he can’t hit 290W at 62kg. He’s clearly trainable if he ran a 1:30 half.
Will it be sustainable? Will he hold that FTP for a long time? 
but I’d say doable if dedicated.
This is heavily genetics based. There are people that will never hit 4.7 and there are people that will hit that number on relatively minimal training.
But if you don’t have the genetics you’ll be leading yourself to burn out and disappointment.
Just go for it, worst case is you get really really fit (just beware of overtraining).
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I don’t think your goal is unachievable. My first 20min FTP test gave me an FTP of 227W and after about a 15 months of TR I was at 347W FTP (4.2W/kg). I was riding for several years before that but never trained structured.
Your goal is very specific and maybe not the goal you should aim at. What kind of race is that? A hilly climbers race? Or is it flat and fast? Because at 62kg you’ll just get lost in the bunch and definitely out-sprinted. 4.7W/kg for someone at 82kg is vastly different than 62kg in a rolling road race or even crit. You need to provide more info.
But if you have good genetics, you also usually have a high off the couch FTP. I think the person with the best chance of hitting a 75% increase trained as a teenager and has since put on a lot of weight. Losing the weight gets you a long way in the right W/kg direction. If you have to do it purely on power gain, it’s quite a hard task but perhaps not impossible.
There’s only one way to find out, but the that process has to be fun in itself (it is…).
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I think it is possible. It isn’t easy and nothing would make it guaranteed. But it is possible.
You can get as many opinions on how the training could be structured as you want - just ask 20 people and you will get at least 20.
But I think there will be a general consensus on these elements
- structure the training to match the demands of the event
- consistency is king: ride as many days in the week as you can with low intensity rides between medium and high intensity ones so that you can make today’s session only so hard that you can do the next one well
- fuel, rest and sleep well
- make the process enjoyable
Also consider how much of a factor their 4.7 FTP was to previous winners winning that race.
As others have already said, there are likely broader things to consider and they will be different if the race is a tight circuit crit, or a long and hilly bunch start road race, or a solo flat time trial for example.
If you can do some similar events as you train, you will learn a lot about what it is going to take to win your target event and can incorporate that into your training plan.
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There is no get-rich-quick scheme. A 75 % increase is significant and unless you have a background in some other endurance sport (running, swimming, etc.), it will take several years to build up the base fitness.
4.7 W/kg is exceptional and takes a lot of work, both, on the bike and off the bike. I got to 4.7 W/kg about 2 years ago and everything aligned that year, I managed to sleep well, got my schedule figured out, improved my on-the-bike nutrition and spent a lot of time on the bike. And it was based on years of learning the ropes of structured training, nutrition, the importance of rest, etc.
People focus a lot on marginal gains, but forget about the really big and basic stuff. The biggest factor in my training is sleeping consistently more than 7.5 hours per night, ideally 8.
I would strongly caution against setting yourself the goal of reaching an arbitrary number like 4.7 W/kg. You have no idea whether you can ever reach it or if you can, how long it will take. Not reaching the goal within the super short time frame (6 months!) would be very discouraging.
Lastly, 4.7 W/kg sounds oddly specific. Unless the race is very climby, at your weight, your absolute FTP will not be very big, 292 W is within reach for athletes who are heavier than you. In flatter races, the absolute number matters more, unless you learn to race smart. Race craft is definitely not learnt within a few weeks.
These are stories of people winning the genetic lottery and who are willing to put in the work.
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One of the things you learn over time in endurance training is to have process goals, the outcome is the outcome which you can’t control.
You can control how much time and effort you put in, limited by other elements of your life style.
So…for example, can you train 5hrs a week, 10, 15, 20…40?
You answer this, follow a plan, and the outcome in 12 Months could be 4.7, 5, or 3.
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That puts you at 3W/kg, a 75% increase would put you at 5.25W/kg. Is it that or 4.7W/kg you want?
I think there is only one to find out. Start training and give us some monthly updates. Good Luck! 
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Depending on the race, your skills and tactics will get you further than FTP. Don’t neglect your training races, skill drills, and fast group rides while you build your engine.
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I’ll just say no.
A few years from now? Maybe.
And 300 watts is not going to do you much if you don’t have racing skills, or endurance to match. I’ve “won” a 100+ mile fondo with less power due to my endurance, but I get smashed if I show up to a crit because I don’t have crit racing skills.
I’ve beat Phil Gaimon before…on a mountain bike. He has (had?) no idea what he was doing in dirt.
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Depending upon your genes, age, dedication etc it is achievable. Almost anything is possible with work. Its a lofty goal and will be no mean feat though. But a specific figure won’t win you a race, a race is more than that. Even when I was 5w/kg in the distant passed folks with better bike handling and or tactical skills than me would ‘kick my @$$’. Similarly on a flat route being a light weight I’d be outsprinted by folks with more raw power but a lower w/kg.