You don’t give many details, so the answer is generic.
Most likely not achievable, but if you are to go for it, I think avoiding burnout will be your biggest challenge.
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Good point.
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5 w/kg is approaching elite territory. Some would argue it is elite territory.
4.5 to 5.0 w/kg is a very good cycling achievement. Many cat 3 (USA) riders are hanging in on 3.75 - 4.0 w/kg. You can see from all the threads on this forum how difficult it is to make 4.0 w/kg for the vast majority of serious amateur riders. Getting to 5.0 +/- for a true threshold power is not common.
Proxy estimates: A 90 min half-marathon is a good time. But not an elite time. If you are trying to estimate probability of success in reaching 5 w/kg, and using running results as a proxy for potential, then you’ll need to be honest with yourself about that reference mark of a 90 min half.
If you did that 90 min time “off the couch”, meaning none or very minimal training, then maybe you have elite potential. If, however, there was a decent preparation phase before that half, then you are certainly a good runner, but not elite. Take no offense - it’s a discussion not a criticism.
Based on my experience, running is a pretty good proxy for cycling. Rowing, swimming and XC skiing can be too but are less common. Elite endurance athletes from other sports, once they figure out how to ride a bike technically, typically turn out to be good cyclists.
I would do three things:
First, take a very honest look at past performances in various sports and ask if you have the potential to hit the power mark you’ve set. If yes, plot out a plan and go for it. Many folks find the training journey to be its own reward. Regardless of what well meaning people say here in the forum, you’re better off just going for it and finding out. Prove the negative people wrong !!
Second, do a few serious FTP tests over the next 4-6 weeks and get a real baseline. There are various ways to do FTP estimates and all have flaws. Personally, if my goal event was 1-3 hours, then I would do at least a 30 minute test, and even better a 45 min test to see where I am at in terms of threshold. It takes a few runs at FTP testing to get good at it so learning how to ride the test is another part of the training journey.
Third, if you conclude that you do have the potential, still take a serious look and reflect on your timeline for achieving the w/kg goal. Improvements are not linear. If a rider is, for example at 3.5 w/kg untrained and with elite potential, the first jump from a 4-6 month training program will be huge. From that point, the next set of gains could take a while. Add in skill building and muscle memory and depth of fitness and it could well take another year or two of work to hit true potential.
In terms of racing, real world race results depend on much more than w/kg. Poop happens in actual bike races. If I were targeting a specific result (winning a specific bike race) I’d give myself a good three shots at it. Even then, no guarantees as racing is dynamic and someone stronger and more skilled could show up on any given race day.
Regardless of all that - very good luck and hope you reach your goal. If not, have a lot of fun trying.
-Darth
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My off the couch estimated VO2max (using the Noakes 1992 method) is 50mL/min/kg.
As someone who has similar stats… I hope it is possible for you to get to 4.7 w/kg, because maybe it means I have a snowball’s chance of getting to 4 w/kg.
No matter anyone’s opinion, you won’t know until you start taining and watch your rate of improvement.
How are you all still feeding this? 
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