Leadville 100MTB FTP?

[DCurtis]

I am training for my first Leadville 100MTB this August. I was wondering if there is any information out there in regard to how watts/kg relates to finishing time? In other words what kind of watts/kg does it take just to finish sub 12 hour? Sub 11? Sub 10? Sub 9?..and so forth. A chart would be awesome! I know there is much more to that race than just your FTP…endurance, nutrition, coral position etc. But it would be nice to have an idea of a time frame to set a reasonable goal. I currently at a 3.0 watt/kg with hopes of a 3.5 come race day. Thanks!

[stevemz]

I’d have to go back and dig through my data to confirm, but rough guidelines for a sea level athlete

• 4.5w/kg: Sub 9 if you have a solid day, Sub 8 on a perfect day
• 4 w/kg: Sub 10 if you have a solid day, Sub 9 on a perfect day
• 3.5w/kg: Sub 11 if you have a solid day, Sub 10 on a perfect day
• 3w/kg: Sub 12 if you have a solid day, Sub 11 on a perfect day

[Nate_Pearson]

I was around 4 watt/kg at sea level (maybe 4.1) and did a 8:53 (or something like that).

That’s with a blowup. I think you could take 10 minutes off that time if you had better handling skills.

I was super optimized though with equipment and nutrition (unless I wasn’t ).

[stevemz]

It’s interesting how close you and I were for the first half of the course. Within 1 minute over 4 and a half hours!

(I was 4w/kg on race day)

[DCurtis]

Thanks you all! This is all good information. My original goal was just to finish the darn race, but thanks to TR my FTP keeps on going up exponentially. If I can get up to 3.5 watts/kg I may have to change my goal to sub 11 or 10 1/2. Im also a Leadville native, so that might help. I have another question about Leadville, but I submitted it to the TR team so I’ll wait to see if Nate answers it on the next Podcast

[Nate_Pearson]

I’m right here . Ask away!

[DaveWh]

If you’re currently living in Leadville you have a big advantage being acclimatized to 10k feet. A 3.0 W/kg in Leadville is about the same as someone who has a 3.75W/kg at sea level and travels to Leadville for the race (no/little acclimatization).

I’m 3.25 W/kg at 7k feet and rode it in 9:38. 3.25 W/kg is about 3.0 at 10k feet - so you’d be similar to me. I think a sub 10 is possible for you if you have a good day - right pacing, hydration and nutrition; no cramps, mechanicals or crashes.

Ride the Silver Rush as a prep race. It will help you dial in your equipment, hydration, nutrition - and you may also be able to improve you’re corral placement into purple or maybe green. And it’s a good benchmark to estimate what your LT100 finishing time might be.

[cbrink]

I did the LT100MTB at around 3.5 this year and finished in 10:39. Everything went perfect for me. My original goal was to finish under 12, but as I got close to the event, I knew my fitness was really good and adjusted my goal to sub 11.

[DCurtis]

Thank! Its great to have an idea of what the time frame will be for me. Time to put in the work, and get my ftp up. I think sub 11 is definitely doable

[DCurtis]

Well my question I submitted to the team was this. My sweet spot training followed by sustained power build followed by the century plan will end in April. Should I continue to train with TR after that leading up to the race in August? Or should I spend most if not all of my time on the MTB100 course? Riding the course will familiarize me with the course as well as develop technical skills, but training on the trainer will ensure that I train at threshold which in turn will yield a higher ftp. I do not have a power meter to train outdoors.

[Nate_Pearson]

As you probably know, the course is not technical. The power line and sugar loaf descent had me hitting the brakes, but I suck.

I don’t think this is an either or thing. I’d do Sunday aerobic rides on course and do the rest on the trainer. I think you’d get the best mix of both worlds with that.

[wbendus]

I started a similar topic on the Leadville 100 MTB Participants group on Facebook, where a members have been sharing some very interesting data on qualifying event times and their LT100MTB finish times. You can find it here: Leadville 100 MTB Participants | Facebook

[wbendus]

@Nate_Pearson, wanted to tag you on this, as you might find it interesting. Feel free to ping me, if you would like the backup data–could make a very interesting podcast episode!

I have run some analysis on how qualifying event times have translated for athletes that went on to attempt the LT100MTB. The “Over” column indicates the count of athletes that finished the LT100MTB in a time greater than their corral position might have indicated, and “Under” means they came in under the cut-off time for that corral.

As far as getting a good corral position, Wilmington Whiteface looks to be the best bet, followed by the Barn Burner. See the analysis below–I think it’s very illuminating:

Austin Rattler
Corral	Avg Austin time	Count	Avg LT100 Time	Count	Avg Multiplier	Over	Under
Gold	n/a	0	n/a	0	n/a	n/a	n/a
Silver	n/a	0	n/a	0	n/a	n/a	n/a
Red	04:29:36	1	08:20:10	1	1.86x	0	1
Green	04:46:35	9	08:05:09	9	1.69x	0	9
Purple	05:15:13	11	09:04:55	10	1.74x	0	10
Orange	06:01:48	46	10:09:26	46	1.69x	11	35
Blue	06:46:24	22	10:53:11	18	1.61x	1	17
White	07:22:15	23	11:31:07	18	1.57x	18	0
Overall	06:15:38	112	10:13:12	102	1.66x	30	72

Willmington Whiteface 100k
Corral	Avg Whiteface Time	Count	Avg LT100 Time	Count	Avg Multiplier	Over	Under
Gold	n/a	0	n/a	0	n/a	n/a	n/a
Silver	04:37:18	13	08:50:16	13	1.91x	10	3
Red	04:54:46	14	09:38:40	13	1.96x	13	0
Green	05:16:48	15	10:33:08	15	2.00x	14	1
Purple	05:44:58	20	11:20:45	17	1.97x	15	2
Orange	06:24:00	17	11:25:49	10	1.82x	8	2
Blue	07:22:35	6	12:34:34	2	1.71x	1	1
White	08:53:12	1	n/a	0	n/a	n/a	n/a
Overall	05:38:22	86	10:26:28	70	1.93x	61	9

Lutsen 99er
Corral	Avg Lusten Time	Count	Avg LT100 Time	Count	Avg Multiplier	Over	Under
Gold	05:21:01	1	n/a	0	n/a	n/a	n/a
Silver	05:35:53	3	08:16:26	2	1.47x	1	1
Red	05:48:28	5	08:37:27	5	1.49x	3	2
Green	06:05:22	3	09:57:09	3	1.63x	3	0
Purple	06:38:07	36	10:21:37	33	1.56x	21	12
Orange	07:16:52	15	10:58:00	14	1.51x	7	7
Blue	08:04:35	25	11:31:21	14	1.46x	4	10
White	09:12:19	2	n/a	0	n/a	n/a	n/a
Overall	07:05:15	90	10:30:39	71	1.52x	39	32

Silver Rush 50 Mile
Corral	Avg Silver Rush Time	Count	Avg LT100 Time	Count	Avg Multiplier	Over	Under
Gold	04:05:32	6	07:18:48	5	1.79x	0	5
Silver	04:20:29	6	07:35:50	5	1.75x	0	5
Red	04:55:55	50	08:41:13	49	1.76x	29	20
Green	05:30:31	57	09:39:35	56	1.75x	46	10
Purple	06:08:48	71	10:35:42	67	1.73x	53	14
Orange	06:52:45	61	11:29:17	53	1.67x	41	12
Blue	07:36:41	29	12:00:17	25	1.58x	13	12
White	08:11:41	11	12:07:08	2	1.49x	2	0
Overall	06:06:37	291	10:14:43	262	1.71x	184	78

Tahoe Trail 100k
Corral	Avg Tahoe Time	Count	Avg LT100 Time	Count	Avg Multiplier	Over	Under
Gold	03:58:50	1	07:14:39	1	1.82x	0	1
Silver	04:30:22	4	07:23:37	3	1.62x	0	3
Red	05:00:40	19	08:28:57	18	1.69x	9	9
Green	05:37:31	33	09:36:10	31	1.71x	25	6
Purple	06:20:46	23	10:49:14	23	1.71x	18	5
Orange	07:04:56	10	11:48:46	9	1.66x	8	1
Blue	08:03:27	2	12:32:40	2	1.56x	2	0
White	08:56:49	1	n/a	0	n/a	n/a	n/a
Overall	05:51:25	93	09:53:09	87	1.69x	62	25

Leadville Stage Race
Corral	Avg Leadville Stage Time	Count	Avg LT100 Time	Count	Avg Multiplier	Over	Under
Gold	06:34:52	9	07:17:10	9	1.11x	2	7
Silver	07:16:51	11	08:14:53	11	1.13x	6	5
Red	07:46:59	14	09:22:31	13	1.20x	12	1
Green	08:14:58	23	09:22:11	22	1.14x	15	7
Purple	09:01:38	25	10:23:27	22	1.16x	14	8
Orange	09:43:39	18	10:57:39	18	1.13x	8	10
Blue	10:18:40	13	11:49:15	8	1.15x	3	5
White	11:18:09	26	11:56:06	14	1.09x	14	0
Overall	09:06:47	139	10:00:57	117	1.14x	74	43

Barn Burner 104 Mile
Corral	Avg BarnBurner Time	Count	Avg LT100 Time	Count	Avg Multiplier	Over	Under
Gold	05:51:21	1	06:39:31	1	1.14x	0	1
Silver	06:49:22	1	08:15:06	1	1.21x	1	0
Red	07:18:14	5	09:02:14	5	1.24x	5	0
Green	07:47:12	7	10:36:19	6	1.36x	7	0
Purple	08:17:39	12	10:23:11	10	1.26x	10	2
Orange	08:44:48	8	11:03:08	6	1.27x	6	2
Blue	09:37:38	1	12:10:51	1	1.27x	1	0
White	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Overall	08:04:52	35	10:12:10	30	1.27x	30	5

[evokevin]

I just got an email that the austin rattler has a change of venue. So the times go out the window with it

[wbendus]

Reference for the LT100MTB corral times.

[DaveWh]

Nice work!

If I’m interpreting this correctly, this shows that most of the qualifiers (Austin being the exception) will tend to get you into a corral that is above your abilities.

I thought that based on my Silver Rush qualifier. I got into the green corral, which in theory would have meant I could do a sub nine. I did 9:38.

[wbendus]

Correct; i.e. green corral at SR would imply a <9:00 finish at the LT100MTB; to get into the green corral by using your LT100MTB time the following year, you would need to have come in under 9:00.

I’m working on a way to re-cut the analysis to make that a little more intuitive…

[Porkchop]

Well done, @wbendus! Is this data from a single year? If so, what year?

[wbendus]

Yes; this past year–2018 results.

[Dlove]

@evokevin

I just got an email that the austin rattler has a change of venue. So the times go out the window with it

Yes Sir you are correct and I’m wondering what the course will be like at the new venue, the new venue will be “Reveille Peak” which has a lot of new trail that has been cut and might be worth a day trip down to hit the trails and do some advance homework.