Easy, SRAM Rival AXS. Although I reckon the fair comparison (price-wise) would be Ultegra mechanical. Even then I’d go AXS.
I reckon that SRAM will keep the same flexible 1x/2x setup and compatibility with its mountain bike rear derailleurs. IMHO that’s really what is going to kill Shimano. Their groupsets are less flexible, have 1 less cog (which will be fixed with DuraAce 9200), have more restrictions, apart from GRX have no officially supported 1x solution.
PS To be fair, I have already gone AXS, just not Rival but Force. If the stars align, my bike will be ready next month
I’d go 105 mechanical before I touched the SRAM. I have Eagle AXS on my MTB and while the shifting is smooth and fast feel wise, pretty much every shift sounds like the Titanic breaking apart, and I’m using the X01 cassette and X01 chain which are basically Dura Ace/Red equivalent (XX1 is technically a step up but only adds special anti corrosion coatings)
I was not commenting on SRAM vs Shimano, just pointing out why a company would want to bring electronic shifting to lower price points. It would be a big competitive advantage vs your major rival in the market
Fair enough, but could also be seen as diluting the perceived value of that feature. Car companies do this all the time, there’s nothing stopping Mercedes from making AMG engines available in every single car they have, but you can’t get one unless you get the expensive AMG model. Granted maybe both SRAM and Shimano already did that by offering it below the top tier, but frankly I don’t see a reason to get 105 instead of Ultegra from a pure cost perspective, they just aren’t that far apart unlike the jump from Ultegra to DA.
I’m most interested in electronic shifting becoming the new baseline, i.e. electronic shifting no longer being considered a “premium” feature. I think they can still stratify their offerings with exotic materials, finishes, ergonomics, etc, but the electronic components will only get cheaper and easier to offer at lower price points. We, the consumers, definitely win in that scenario
To further your car analogy, to me it’s like large pretty wheels, ride quality, keyless entry/start…all were formerly features on premium offerings, but now can be had at much, much lower price points (take a look at Kia and Hyundai’s most recent models )
Yeah I would argue at them moment mechanical Ultegra is kind of in a no-mans-land. It’s significantly more expansive than 105 (like…twice?!) but the only performance difference is you save like 200 gr. And yet I see plenty people kitted out with mechanical Ultegra. Presumably because it doesn’t have the same smell of peasantry as the 105
Ok, also we shouldn’t forget that the vast majority of group-sets are sold on prebuild bikes. And with the “Ultegra tier” bikes, you usually get other nice stuff like better wheels and whatnot. The same would be true with all everything being electrified.
There are more than a few people out there who are foolish enough to go for the highest of the high levels of gear for no other reason than, Dang, it’s really really sweet. Speaking from personal experience
What I’m hoping for is improved disc rotors. I have ultegra on both my road and gravel bikes, and the rotors could be better. I’ve had warping / rubbing and squealing on both bikes
I was going to mention the other upgrades you usually get on Ultegra level bikes but you covered them well. Not uncommon to get better wheels/bars/saddle at that point. At least in USD, I can get 105 for $649 and Ultegra for $899, so not quite double, but perhaps not worth it to some. When I was shopping, Ultegra Di2 was the same cost as DA mech, kind of a no brainer to go Di2 there. I wouldn’t expect 105 Di2 to be comparable in price to Ultegra mechanical though.
IIRC my entire 8050 grouppo was $1350 so using the same math from mechanical then 105 Di2 could cost right around $1,000. Is the $350 to save some weight and have prettier gray shifters worth it? Maybe, definitely easier to stomach than the leap from Ultegra Di2 $1350 to Dura Ace Di2 $3000.
I honestly think, 105 might actually be better in that regard. (I had no issues, but obviously n=1).
The 105 rotor is one solid piece of stamped steel. Whereas ultegra/dura ace have these steel/Al/steel sandwiches. I’m not a material expert, but I always kinda suspected, that this might not be ideal for things that heat/cool rather massively in short periods of time.
Yeah, you’re probably right. I’d hoped that Shimano’s terrible roll outs of the past few years were behind us, but it’s probably the new normal.
Back in the DA7800, ultegra 6700 roll outs etc, they were really good at releasing a trickle down group each year. Then once they got to Sora, they’d be back to a DA group the next year.
SRAM moves fast and changes standards like they are underpants.
Shimano moves slowly and ensures legacy integration amongst known industry standards.
If I buy Shimano, a) it is cheaper over a 2-3year lifecycle b) it works as expected, incl front derailleur C) it will be supported after 2-3years incl amongst lbs and online retailers.
SRAM fails all three, and for the reasons above and many more will never be on my bikes. Hate is a strong word, but it sits comfortably in any sentence containing SRAM.
I think you should think of electronic shifting more like airbags, ESP, heated seats and the like rather than an AMG engine — it’ll be trickle-down technology. When my dad’s Mercedes had heated seats in the 1980 this was a huge thing, a feature you could only get on luxury cars and not on Volkwagens. Now it is an option on pretty much any car of any price class you can think of. ESP and airbags have been mandated by law in the EU (and probably most other first-world countries).
Electronic shifting will be like that, at least for mid-range and up. I reckon a lot of customers would opt for electronic 105 rather than mechanical Ultegra if they are similarly priced. You have that even now with mechanical DuraAce and Ultegra Di2. I know two people who opted for DuraAce (mechanical) over Ultegra Di2, in one case it was pure nostalgia, in the other it was weight. But IMHO the majority of customers will opt for electronic groupsets.
SRAM doesn’t have a market with its mechanical groupsets (apart from perhaps Force 1 and Rival 1 which are getting a bit long in the tooth), so there is no cannibalization for them if they bring to market a Rival eTap AXS 12-speed groupset. It is a ticket for SRAM to win more bike manufacturers over and Shimano won’t have an answer for years.
Those are arguments, although some of them are due to Shimano’s overwhelming popularity amongst bicycle manufacturers. Every bike shop has Shimano parts in stock. SRAM? Not so much, even very well-stocked ones.
The counter is that e. g. on the mountain bike side SRAM has been just a lot better. For a long time Shimano was competing with 2x11 drivetrains in a 1x12 world: customers wanted 1x, because it was better (on average). Bike manufacturers wanted 1x, because the lack of a FD gave them the freedom to do interesting stuff with the frame. Shimano is now trying to catch up.
This is the most important point I’ve seen raised. Sram did well by acquiring Quarq, excellent power meters, Shimano’s is a joke, and have likely helped customers (like me) choose the groupset based on the power meter. Yes I know the D-FOUR can be used with Shimano rings, but that’s additional time/cost/complexity on what is already an expensive build.
This is why I’m really hoping that SRAM combines two recent acquisitions: Time pedals with PowerTap p2 pedal based power meter to create a Time pedal power meter. For me, this would solve a ton of problems. I prefer Shimano Di2 to SRAM eTap (I’ve had both), and would like a true two sided, and accurate, power meter.
Total opposite here. Dura Ace chains back ordered till May but tons of X01 chains available. August ETA for XT/R brake pads but had my Guide RS pads in abundance. Buddy of mine is a manager for a trek warehouse and says soon as stuff comes in it’s claimed. He had to order his chain and cassette from Jensen cause it would take way longer through his work.
I live in Japan, so not surprisingly, I live in opposite-world. I ordered my new road bike in January. The store offered to upgrade my crank from Force eTap to Red eTap for about $120. Heck yeah! When they tried to procure it, they told me I’d at least have to wait until June. As for the crankset, even the Force eTap AXS crankset, I ordered a 1x in 165 mm, so not standard fare, but they only had 1 (!!) in the entire country — and it is mine!
Personally, the reason to go for SRAM was in equal parts ergonomics (hood shape as well as buttons), 11-vs-12-speed and SRAM allowing 1x natively. Oh, and the power meters, which are one of the benchmark power meters according to @dcrainmaker and @GPLama. I like my XT drive train and brakes on my mountain bike, they have been very reliable. But IMHO when it comes to drop bar groupsets, Shimano’s ergonomics is super bad. I could have gone to 13-speed Campag, but I don’t like their two-button paradigm either. And last time I tried their hydraulic disc brakes, I wasn’t impressed.
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