So I think I have an answer and data, which match TRs “stick with it”, consistency answer.
It’s only looking at bike and tss, so correlation may not mean causation - I’d like peoples thoughts…
| avgTSS (6wk) | FTP | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 150 | 247 |
| 250 | 258 | |
| 330 | 264 | |
| 350 | 272 | |
| 380 | 293 | |
| 2023 | 150 | 253 |
| 200 | 260 | |
| 350 | 266 | |
| 125 | 248 | |
| 2024 | 100 | 248 |
| 320 | 257 | |
| 300 | 262 | |
| 330 | 266 | |
| 220 | 250 | |
| 2025 | 150 | 247 |
| 180 | 247 | |
| 210 | 245 |
I’ve taken out dates of testing, but broadly you can see this as ftp results from the first week of each year, and the six week average tss corresponding to each further result through the first half of the year.
I think I’m seeing my baseline ftp is around 247 and 150 tss doesn’t move the needle.
2020 was my best year and the six week average progressed steadily through the year, to my all time high from an avg 380 tss.
2020/23/24 show a correlation of around 350 avg to a 266 FTP which I think of as my usual in season power.
But 2023 showed that even just a 200 avg got me to 260.
And 2024 where I tried a much high time in saddle, starting with a higher average TSS over 300 did not jump-start my FTP, it showed the same steady progress as lower loads in other years. Perhaps Plan Builder is right and I should not try to force an early higher average, but increase it every couple of months instead.
So my prediction is that if I stay on plan then I’ll see around a 260 ftp in three weeks…