Right. Obviously as we expect more and more detail, the task of answering the question becomes exponentially more difficult to answer. And I don’t expect any sort of answer. Just sort of stating it’s important to understand what we know we dont know.
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Sticking with the recipe of a cake comparison…I’d say our current understanding is something like…we know you need an oven to bake a cake. The cake needs to be in there for quite a while based on previous observations. Mix together some flour/water/sugar/eggs before you put it in.
Useful information all of that of course, and can help to adjust behavior to help performance, but not quite a recipe.
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It IS a recipe by the literal definition of the term.
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What it is NOT is a precise chemical analysis about how the specific combination of those ingredients along with introduction of heat over time convert those discrete items into something new & different.
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Do we need to know the molecular bonding changes and black magic within to make and enjoy a cake? Not in the least.
I get your point overall, that we may not know the specific mechanisms and link between sleep and performance improvement and such. But we don’t need to know that to accept that evidence shows the way that it is highly beneficial, to the point that aiming for more is likely better than less within our lives and training focus.
What else would you control for?
I would imagine doing it like any other performance based study looking at supplements, training regimen, etc. IE, take any properly controlled study looking at how a training plan affects performance but instead of looking at different training plans you compare sleep time.
Have you looked at studies and noticed not everyone responds the same?
Even if you have compelling evidence that something works, it may not work as well for you, or may work better.
My opinion - better to conduct ‘studies’ on yourself than take the word of a study or expert. Example - I improved performance by apparently going against some of the (at the time) TR wisdom on training, and some of the Friel ‘Fast After 50’ advice.
It could be. It depends entirely on the goal though. If the goal is for one individual to get faster, totally, personal trial and error very well could be the best route.
If the goal is understanding the impact of sleep on long term performance gains on the human body in general…well then no. A large study (that trainer road actually has a pretty good basis for honestly) would be the way to go. Comparing average ftp increases per training plan, then compared against average sleep. Heck just adding a question after every workout of “how many hours sleep did you get last night” would be the start of of some pretty interesting data. You’d of course still have the question of causation vs correlation…that that seems nearly unavoidable in most nebulous studies like these on a population.
But you’d need to control for alcohol, and other stresses in the persons life unless it was an intervention study. I think they’d be too many confounding factors.
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Wake me up when that happens. All that data and from what I’ve seen, it wouldn’t result in a training plan like the one I’ve done where vo2max and FTP and short power have all increased despite going from fifty eight to sixty one yrs old. I say despite because the longitudinal studies show x% decline with age.
My coach gets it, the coaching company he works for gets it, Alan Couzens gets it
and 3 years and 2 months ago I bet that it would work too, and by ‘only’ averaging 7-8+ hours/week over the course of 2 years.
Figure out your limiters and put a plan in place to work on them. Establish metrics and measure progress. Course corrections if needed.
Perhaps. The ability to turn it into a product is something else though. But the data is certainly there. Having the data to be able to control for consistency of training, regularly measured power already is a huge start. I mean the work is basically done already…it would literally just be asking people how much they sleep and making a graph.
OP here. Bit of an update. Took two full days off and am feeling much better. Adaptive training has taken my workouts back to “achievable” and so far it feels right. I have this week and next to do some solid but moderate training before the taper.
Carry on with the sleep debate. 
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This is already widely know, but you just continue to ignore it despite multiple people pointing you in the right direction, that is up to you. Ultimately it is your loss, good luck, it is pretty pointless following a training plan and not getting a decent (adequate) amount of quality sleep, it is just sabotaging your performance gains, that is a fact. Doesn’t it matter if you can put hard numbers on it or not, you can’t do that for a training plan, but most people still follow one because they know it works, same with rest, sleep and recovery, good nutrition etc.
Exactly this, why not try it, what are you afraid of, why the unfounded resistance? Is it because you might find out you’ve not been getting the most out of your training by not making a relatively easy free change? If you are already maximising your sleep given you personal constraints then fair enough, but no need to question the clear benefits of quality sleep. If you try or have tired improving your sleep quality or duration and it isn’t worth the effort for you what have you really lost? As @mcneese.chad and others have pointed out good sleep has general benefits to all areas of life not just endurance performance
I honestly don’t understand the point you are trying to make and I am not sure you do either, if you want to argue a point I’m sure you could find a better one?
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Good to hear it is coming good, sounds like a classic case more training load than you could adapt too. Two days off to turn things around is no issue IMO. Could have been much worse, you could have dug a big hole.
Be careful of a relapse into fatigue, easy to do when you start to feel better.
Hope it continues to go well in the taper and into your event.
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FWIW I’m almost fully recovered from some killer (for me) anaerobic capacity intervals to boost the battery for Wed and Sat group rides. Best response in years so pretty happy with that big (for me) block of endurance work in November and December.
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I took a nap instead of reading these random sleep arguments. Much better now, definitely ready for 1:30 Endurance. Well, with the assistance of a chocolate chip cookie. 
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Was a bit disappointed in the direction this thread has gone but was interested in the original problem.
I also burnt myself out recently, perhaps due to lack of sleep and life stress and just too much of an increase in TSS in a short period to a level I couldn’t sustain.
My goal this year was to get at least 6 hours of training per week.
By the end of February I was doing workouts with a cadence in the 60s (getting caught in the ERG death spiral) with a HR of 120-130s , Threshold, Sweet Spot etc (as a comparison, now that I’ve recovered I did White -4 with an avg cadence of 95 last night). TSS 350 for that week
I really didn’t want to ditch my goal of at least 6 hours per week this early in the year though so what I did was cut the intensity. In the last week of February I tried doing this by choosing an easier 2nd SS workout for the week instead of going SS 3.1 on Monday to SS 3.5 on Tuesday I chose a SS 3.2 similarly for my end of week Threshold workout I chose one that was 0.1 higher PL than the previous week instead of 0.3 or whatever TR had prescribed. This wasn’t enough, I really struggled getting through that week of workouts (TSS 342)
So the next week I did all Z2, Townsend -1 x3, Leavitt -5 x1 and Bald -1… TSS 261, Still burnt with my cadence declining into the 60s and 50s even with those endurance workouts.
Next week (Mar 13) I did easier Z2, TSS 241. I started to be able to spin these with a cadence in the 80s.
Last week Mar 20 I was able to manage 2 achievable SS workouts and 2 endurance workouts for a 6:46 total at 335 TSS, with decent cadence and normally responding HR.
This week I have a race on Sunday (mixed surface road/gravel race that will likely last ~2h45) but did an Endurance, VO2 and Tempo workout so far and will probably do another Endurance tonight and then just take Friday and Saturday off. As I described at the start I am back to being able to spin an avg cadence in the 90s, probably still not 100% but if you are training 4-5 days per week, you probably won’t be.
Just figured I would throw out there what I did to recover from my burnout by decreasing intensity rather than volume. I definitely lost some progress for what TR expected from me but I was also throwing in an extra 3 hours of Z2 on top of their prescribed 3 intensity workouts. I feel like I am getting back on track now and will begin to start progressing my PLs again while maintaining the extra 3 hours of Z2 per week. I shouldn’t get into a period of lifestress as intense as I was this winter again for the foreseeable future but do have a general idea for how I can address my burnout if I start to see signs.
Would eventually like to work myself up to being able to handle >400 TSS weeks but it seems it isn’t something I capable of rushing into.
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Glad to hear you were able to get things back on track without losing motivation. It’s a fine line we sometimes tread.
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More on sleep, I’m not saying sleep isn’t important but agreeing it’s individual. This video really got me away from trying to perfect my sleep, it unnecessary stress. Get a good routine and if it works it works. I feel better with 6.5 hours than with 8.5 hours of sleep.
All the threads here about fueling the ride and carbs per hour and not stopping during indoor workouts and must stay in zone 2 during your rides (or you lose your gains)… yet can’t convince the majority that sleep helps you recover and getting more (to a point) is good for you. 
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I will say that the silly sleep arguments could be very good sleep aides.